Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Can Bitcoin Stabilize After Volatility as IBIT Rebounds—or Does the Cycle Still Warn of a $34K Risk?

Recent BTC movements illustrate volatility typical of digital assets, with short-term relief rallies offset by downward pressure. Traders and institutional participants are closely monitoring technical structures, historical cycles, and macroeconomic trends to interpret likely trajectories rather than relying on single signals.

Bitcoin Chart Patterns Highlight $300K Upside Potential

Analysts have identified a cup-and-handle formation on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, suggesting a bullish breakout could drive bitcoin price higher. The pattern, formed from 2020–2022 lows and recent handle consolidation, has historically signaled positive momentum in trending markets.

However, the 70–95% success rates cited from Bulkowski’s Encyclopedia primarily reflect equities under different volatility regimes, meaning BTC’s long-duration, multi-cycle cup requires cautious interpretation. Confirming a breakout would typically require retesting the handle resistance with expanding volume, not just the shape alone.

@BDCryptoGuru highlights a Bitcoin cup-and-handle pattern suggesting a $70K–$300K breakout amid community skepticism. Source: Crypto Guru via X

Crypto commentator @BDCryptoGuru highlighted the formation on social media, noting, “Cup and handle bullish pattern on $BTC! #BITCOIN could hit $300,000 within the next 6 months.” While the post reflects sentiment, the target should be considered a bull-case tail risk, achievable only if liquidity conditions expand and Bitcoin extends its cycle structure, rather than as a near-term baseline forecast.

Short-Term Market Movements Suggest Caution

In the intraday charts, BTC has recently rebounded toward the point of control—the price level with the highest traded volume—indicating temporary balance rather than sustained accumulation. Holding above this level could allow BTC to consolidate or test shallow upside probes, while a drop below might trigger rotational moves targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near the local value area low.

@SeongWooIQ300 took a $250K leveraged long on Bitcoin near $69K, despite high liquidation risk. Source: IQ 300 | Dr. SeongWoo Choi via X

One trader, Dr. SeongWoo Choi, shared a $250,000 leveraged long around $69,000, with liquidation near $65,750 and a potential upside of $2 million. This example illustrates a highly asymmetric risk profile and should not be considered a typical outcome. Analysts emphasize that proximity to liquidation underscores the inherent volatility and potential for rapid losses.

Historical Cycles Suggest a $34K Risk Zone

Looking at historical BTC cycles provides context for downside risks. In the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin retraced roughly 52% from its all-time high over several months before establishing a mid-term bear market low, which later fueled a strong recovery. The current 2025–2026 retracement mirrors this magnitude, reflecting a structurally healthy price correction rather than a disorderly collapse.

Bitcoin’s 52% retracement echoes 2021, hinting at a mid-term low with a possible relief rally before a $34K move. Source: TehThomas on TradingView

This repetition is not random and reflects accumulation by stronger hands rather than wholesale exits.Should the pattern follow historical behavior, BTC could stage a relief rally of approximately 46% into the daily Fair Value Gap—a zone of institutional liquidity left unfilled—before a potential secondary leg toward $34,000.

This sequence—a capitulation, relief rally, and secondary drop—is characteristic of mid-cycle bear markets, not full macro reversals. Duration and trading volume from prior cycles suggest that price behavior around support and Fair Value Gap zones is a critical signal for longer-term accumulation phases.

Macro Perspective: Bitcoin and Monetary Debasement

Bitcoin’s trajectory also interacts with global monetary trends. Policies from central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, influence liquidity and interest rates, historically correlating with bitcoin price movements. BTC is increasingly viewed as a hedge against monetary debasement, attracting attention during periods of potential fiat currency depreciation.

Rising inflation or aggressive monetary expansion could amplify interest in Bitcoin as a scarce digital asset. In this context, technical formations like the cup-and-handle pattern gain relevance but must be interpreted alongside macroeconomic signals to assess both upside potential and cyclical risks.

IBIT Consolidates Near $40 as Neutral Signals Clash With Strong Sell Trend

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (ticker $IBIT) closed at $39.68 on February 6, 2026, following a sharp bout of volatility that reflects broader Bitcoin price swings. After plunging more than 13% a day earlier, IBIT rebounded nearly 10%, signaling active dip-buying but not yet a confirmed trend reversal. From a technical standpoint, the overall TradingView summary remains neutral, with oscillators showing balanced momentum and no clear overbought or oversold conditions.

$IBIT was trading at around $39.68, up 9.92% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: TradingView

While short-term price action has stabilized above recent lows, the 1-week and 1-month ratings remain at strong sell, suggesting lingering downside pressure as moving averages continue to flatten. This mixed setup highlights consolidation behavior typical of Bitcoin-linked products, where sentiment can shift rapidly alongside the underlying asset favored by long-term holders and Bitcoiner miner exposure narratives.

Key levels are now well-defined, with the pivot at $39.42 acting as an immediate decision zone. A sustained move above Resistance 1 at $40.83 could open the door toward the $42.00–$43.41 range, while failure to hold above Support 1 at $38.25 risks a deeper pullback toward $36.84 and $35.67. Given IBIT’s tight correlation with spot Bitcoin, macro drivers such as Treasury yields and risk sentiment across NASDAQ energy and crypto-adjacent equities remain critical inputs.

For traders, confirmation beyond these pivot levels is key before positioning. For longer-term participants tracking the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, the neutral technical structure suggests patience, as the next directional move will likely be dictated by Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its recovery and broader market risk appetite.

Looking Ahead: Interpreting Bitcoin’s Current Outlook

The bitcoin price today is balancing between a bull-case tail scenario and a cycle-based downside risk. While technical patterns indicate the possibility of a breakout toward $300K, historical cycle analysis and liquidity dynamics suggest that a move toward $34,000 remains plausible.

Bitcoin was trading at around 69,217.466, down 2.61% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin

Investors and traders should focus on structural support levels, the daily Fair Value Gap, and macro conditions rather than single-pattern signals. A confirmed breakout above the handle with volume expansion would support a bullish scenario, whereas failure to hold key support would invalidate higher targets and point to the $34K risk.

Integrating technical analysis, historical cycles, and macroeconomic trends offers the most reliable framework for assessing Bitcoin’s near-term outlook, providing a responsible, evidence-based approach to navigating its highly volatile market.