Gold (XAU/USD) Price Prediction: Gold Set to Test $5,000 as $GLD Shows Bullish Continuation and Upside Potential

Analysts are observing a combination of a completed cup-and-handle formation and a bullish flag pattern as indicators of continued upside. While these technical setups can guide expectations, it is important to note that they are probabilistic signals, not guarantees of price movement.

As of February 8, 2026, gold futures trade around $4,951 per ounce, reflecting demand for safe-haven assets amid a weaker U.S. dollar and market speculation regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Technical Patterns Signal Probable Bullish Momentum

Long-term gold spot charts show a cup-and-handle formation, a technical pattern commonly used in equities but sometimes applied to commodities like gold due to long accumulation cycles, central bank demand, and liquidity trends. Independent technical traders on social platforms, such as @DVSignals, highlight that “strong trends often backtest higher and go. This structure still points up,” suggesting the recent pullback may serve as a consolidation phase before a potential upward move.

Gold futures at $4,951 show a cup-and-handle pattern pointing to potential gains toward $5,000. Source: DeepValue Signals via X

Similarly, a bullish flag pattern on shorter time frames has been noted, signaling buying interest after a corrective move. Trading analyst Xin Yue observed that gold’s recovery from weekly lows indicates that “safe-haven funds have not left the market, and the selling pressure is short-term sentiment,” highlighting market resilience.

It is important to note that both patterns can fail. A sustained break below the $4,895–$4,905 support zone, or a weekly close below the lower Bollinger Band, could invalidate the bullish scenario. Traders are advised to monitor volume confirmation and price behavior rather than relying solely on patterns.

Key Levels and Trading Outlook

Analysts emphasize critical gold price support and resistance levels. Potential buying opportunities are identified around $4,945–$4,965, with resistance expected in the $5,000–$5,100 range. A pullback into the $4,600–$4,650 demand area could serve as a fresh launch point for upward momentum.

Gold rebounded from weekly lows, gaining bullish momentum toward $5,000 amid safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar. Source: XAU_Ron on TradingView

Technical projections suggest that if gold sustains above $5,140, it may challenge levels between $5,300 and $5,340. Historical cycles, however, show that macro tightening or sudden USD strength can override technical setups, leading to failed breakouts despite bullish patterns.

Gold Amid Geopolitical and Macro Trends

Gold’s recent gains have been influenced by heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Escalations in Russia and Ukraine, including attacks on energy infrastructure and stalled Greenland sovereignty negotiations, have created short-term volatility. Independent analysts note that in some historical cases, gold has spiked 10–15% during major geopolitical events. However, these were often short-lived responses rather than sustained trends.

From a macroeconomic perspective, gold remains sensitive to fluctuations in the USD, interest rate expectations, and inflation dynamics. Market participants increasingly view gold as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty. As DeepValue Signals explains, “Gold’s price recovery aligns with long-term trends in gold vs. dollar dynamics and its role as a hedge against inflation, particularly amid shifting central bank policies.”

Gold Price Forecast: Targets and Potential

Based on current technical and macro conditions, analysts outline the following scenario:

• Short-term target: $5,000–$5,100 (probabilistic, contingent on support holding).

• Medium-term upside potential: $5,300–$5,340 (requires sustained bullish momentum).

• Key support levels: $4,895–$4,905, with retracements near $4,600–$4,650 acting as risk-management zones.

Gold may open higher Monday, with support at $4,945–$4,965 and resistance near $5,000–$5,100. Source: Allie—analyst via X

Traders should interpret these levels as probability zones rather than certainties. A failure to hold support or a breakdown below trendlines could signal a bull trap. Monitoring macroeconomic developments—USD strength, Fed announcements, and geopolitical developments—remains essential for context.

$GLD Technical Overview Signals Bullish Trend Continuation

SPDR Gold Shares (ticker $GLD), trading on NYSE American, maintains a bullish technical structure on the daily timeframe as of February 6, 2026. The ETF is trading near the $454–$455 range, with the overall technical summary leaning Buy, driven by strong alignment across key moving averages. Price action remains above major trend-defining levels, signaling continued upside bias despite signs of short-term consolidation.

A move to the channel low implies ~$1,700 $GLD, or ~$18K gold—around 3.5× upside from current levels. Source: TradingView

Moving averages continue to support the prevailing uptrend, with $GLD holding above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages. Exponential moving averages remain firmly bullish, reflecting positive near-term momentum. However, mixed signals from the shortest-term averages suggest overhead resistance and the potential for a brief pullback or sideways price action before trend continuation.

Momentum indicators remain constructive but stretched. MACD and CCI support buying pressure, while multiple oscillators are in overbought territory, indicating near-term exhaustion risk. Volatility remains compressed, increasing the probability of a directional move once price resolves. Holding above the 455.56 pivot keeps resistance levels near 456.29 in focus, while a break below 454.99 would signal a deeper corrective phase within the broader bullish trend.

Final Thoughts:

Gold’s combination of technical formations and macro drivers suggests potential upward momentum toward the $5,000 level. However, these patterns are not guarantees, and traders should consider support and resistance levels, confirmation signals, and macro risks when evaluating potential moves.

Gold remains an important safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation, offering portfolio diversification amid economic uncertainty. While bullish structures suggest opportunity, the probability of failed breakouts underscores the importance of risk-aware analysis in gold trading.