XRP Outlook: Regulatory Clarity Relief, On-Chain Stress, Cautious Price Action

Former U.S. Speaking in early February on The XRP Podcast with host Paul Barron, Giancarlo pointed to XRP’s ability to function through prolonged legal uncertainty as evidence of its resilience.

From legal overhang to institutional relevance

Giancarlo said XRP effectively became the “poster child” of the U.S. regulatory crackdown, arguing that few assets faced comparable pressure. With the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple concluded in 2025, he noted that a major barrier to institutional engagement has been removed, even if market confidence has yet to fully stabilize.

According to Giancarlo, banks have often used unclear rules as justification for avoiding blockchain infrastructure. He suggested that proposed U.S. legislation such as the Clarity Act could strip away that rationale, making it harder for financial institutions to stay on the sidelines once legal frameworks are defined.

Giancarlo rejected the idea of one dominant blockchain, arguing instead for a multi-chain financial system. In this model, the XRP Ledger would coexist with networks like the Canton Network, each optimized for different financial use cases rather than competing for total dominance.



Europe’s head start and the dollar narrative

He also highlighted Europe’s regulatory advantage, noting that the EU’s MiCA framework already allows banks to hold and work with digital assets such as XRP. Giancarlo framed this period as a structural transition, arguing that digital assets could ultimately reinforce the global role of the U.S. dollar rather than weaken it.

Despite the more optimistic regulatory outlook, XRP-linked investment products have remained volatile in recent weeks. The price swings suggest that while legal clarity has improved, investors are still reassessing XRP’s long-term role in institutional finance and cross-border payments.

Technical picture points to consolidation, not collapse

From a technical perspective, XRP is currently trading around the $1.41 area on major exchanges. The hourly chart shows price stabilizing after a sharp sell-off earlier in February, followed by a rebound and sideways consolidation.

Momentum indicators reflect this pause. The RSI is hovering in the mid-40s to high-40s range, suggesting neutral conditions rather than oversold stress. Meanwhile, the MACD has flattened near the zero line after a brief bullish crossover, indicating weakening momentum and a market waiting for a clearer directional catalyst.

On-chain stress mirrors past consolidation phases

On-chain data adds another layer to the picture. According to Glassnode, XRP recently lost its aggregate holder cost basis, a development that historically coincides with panic selling and realized losses.

The SOPR metric has slipped below 1, signaling that many holders are locking in losses. Glassnode notes that a similar setup occurred between late 2021 and mid-2022, a period marked by prolonged consolidation before eventual stabilization rather than an immediate recovery.

ETF flows show selective institutional interest

At the same time, institutional demand has not disappeared. XRP exchange-traded products recorded net inflows of roughly $4.41 million in the latest session, suggesting that some investors are using recent weakness to build exposure. While modest in absolute terms, the inflow contrasts with the broader risk-off tone and hints at selective accumulation rather than wholesale abandonment.

Taken together, XRP’s current setup reflects tension between improving regulatory narratives and short-term market stress. Giancarlo’s comments reinforce the long-term case for regulatory clarity and multi-chain adoption, while technical and on-chain signals suggest the market may need time to absorb recent losses before a more durable trend emerges.

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