Bitcoin Struggles Below $72K As Weak Demand Caps Recovery

Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60,000 and $72,000, facing resistance from heavy overhead supply, according to Glassnode’s Feb 11 report. Since reaching a new all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has passed through three distinct market phases.

First of all, the price dropped rapidly towards the True Market Mean and continued to test it as late as November. Then, Bitcoin remained relatively flat, just above this important level, until late January of 2026.

Finally, the most recent development has been the obvious drop below the True Market Mean, which accelerated the process towards the $60K region.

The current market range is in line with the patterns seen in the early part of 2022, with prices ranging between the Realized Price of $55,000 and the True Market Mean of $79,200.

Analysts believe that without a significant spark, such as a return to the True Market Mean or a shock event such as LUNA or FTX, Bitcoin will likely remain in this range. There is increasing buying activity in the $60K to $72K region.

Institutional DAT Flows Signal Broad Caution

Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) flows indicate a general institutional reluctance. There were net outflows from ETFs, corporate, and government treasuries as Bitcoin approached local lows. The ETFs were responsible for most of the sales. This indicates a de-risking of the market as a whole.

The spot trading volume saw a significant increase during the sell-off in the low $70,000s, only to decline quickly. This is an indication that the traders are responding to the situation, as opposed to accumulating for the long term. The sentiment in the futures market is also the same.

The perpetual futures premiums have cooled down, indicating that there are fewer trading bets by the traders. The leveraged traders are withdrawing, and as such, the price action in the short term is largely dependent on the spot market demand.

Rising Bitcoin Implied Volatility Across Maturities

Implied volatility in Bitcoin has increased across all maturities, with 1-week ATM volatility increasing by over 20 points and 3-month options by around 9 points. The 25 delta skew is highly negative, reflecting a greater demand for protection against the downside than for exposure to the upside.

Gamma positioning by the dealers imposes mechanical pressure on the market. With spot prices around $68,000, the dealers are short gamma, which forces them to buy on strength and sell on weakness. Heat maps of options open interest show large put options sold below $70K and call options sold above $120K.

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