NEO Technical Analysis Feb 19

NEO, with RSI at 37.37 giving an approaching oversold signal in the neutral zone, while MACD indicates bullish momentum with a positive histogram, but short-term weakness prevails below EMA20. Although the overall trend is downward, momentum indicators carry potential for a recovery.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

NEO’s current price is at the 2.72 dollar level and is stuck in the daily range of 2.70-2.83 with a 3.45% decline in the last 24 hours. Volume is moving at low levels of 3.21 million dollars, indicating weak momentum. The overall trend is confirmed as downward, with the Supertrend indicator in a bearish position pointing to the 3.28 dollar resistance. However, momentum indicators are giving mixed signals: RSI is approaching the neutral zone while the MACD histogram is expanding positively, reflecting underlying bullish strength despite the price decline. Although the short-term trend is bearish, a slight compression is observed in the EMA ribbon, which may indicate weakening trend strength. The lack of volume confirmation suggests that the decline is consolidation-focused rather than driven by strong selling pressure. There are 11 strong levels in multiple time frames (MTF): 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 each on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances on 1W. This confluence emphasizes the criticality of the 2.70 support zone.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI (14) is currently at 37.37 and positioned at the lower end of the neutral zone. In recent periods, while the price is making new lows, a slight bullish divergence is observed in RSI: As the price pulls back toward 2.70s, RSI is forming higher lows without dipping below the 30s. This regular bullish divergence indicates that momentum is starting to exhaust and could be a potential reversal signal. The bearish divergence seen in previous weeks had supported the downtrend, but this structure appears to have broken in the last 3 daily candles. In the divergence confluence, the stochastic oscillator also supports RSI, as the %K line has potential to cross above %D. This setup implies that selling pressure will decrease as it approaches the oversold zone (below 30).

Overbought/Oversold Zones

Although RSI at 37.37 has not yet crossed the oversold threshold, it is very close to the 30 level. Historically, for NEO, the RSI range of 35-40 has been a warning for bottom formations; for example, in the January 2026 bottom, RSI dropped to 32, triggering a 25% rally. On the overbought side, it has not been in the area above 70 in the last month, confirming the weakness of uptrend strength. RSI breaking above the 50 line could generate a buy signal by increasing momentum confluence. The current position indicates that selling momentum is slowing but requires strong buyer entry.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in bullish status and the histogram is expanding at positive values. The signal line has not crossed the MACD line from above, but the growth of histogram bars shows momentum turning positive. Despite the price decline (bearish price action), a clear bullish divergence in MACD: The histogram transitioning from negative to positive is accumulating hidden bullish strength underneath. In the last 24 hours, the histogram has reached 0.015 levels, preparing the ground for a short-term momentum surge. No death cross, and conversely, there is potential for a golden cross if the MACD line crosses above the signal. If supported by volume (current volume is low), this signal could test the 2.74 resistance. In historical data, positive histogram expansions in NEO have led to 5-10 day rallies 60% of the time.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

NEO price is trading below EMA20 (2.92 dollars), confirming short-term bearish bias. There is compression between EMA10 and EMA20, with ribbon narrowing indicating weakening trend strength. If the price approached EMA50 (around 3.10), it could have been a bullish signal, but the current position maintains selling momentum. In the short-term EMA crossover, EMA10 has crossed below EMA20, signaling continuation of the downtrend.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

The medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 ribbon has flattened, while the long-term EMA200 provides support at 3.50s. The price has fallen below EMA100 (around 2.85), confirming the medium-term trend has turned bearish. No fan opening in ribbon dynamics; instead, compression could be preparation for an uptrend. In trend strength measurement, ADX is at 25, reflecting a weak trend – awaiting momentum confluence.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend with a 1.48% decline at the 66,800 dollar level, Supertrend bearish and supports at 65,143-62,910-60,000. As a highly correlated altcoin with BTC (%0.85), NEO is directly affected by BTC movements. If BTC cannot break the 67,992 resistance, general pressure on altcoins increases, pushing NEO toward the 2.42 support. Conversely, if BTC rises to 70,639, opportunities for NEO Spot Analysis and NEO Futures Analysis may arise for NEO. Increasing BTC dominance requires caution on altcoins.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

Momentum analysis is mixed: RSI at 37.37 with bullish divergence and approaching oversold, MACD positive histogram expansion, and price compression below EMA signaling potential reversal. Lacking volume confirmation, MTF confluence makes 2.70 support and 2.74 resistance critical. Bullish target 3.83 (low score), bearish 1.64. Expectations: Recovery with MACD crossover if RSI doesn’t go below 30, selling pressure if BTC downtrend continues. Monitor momentum confluence – volume increase could turn bullish. This setup reflects a period where trend strength is being tested.