Analysis: SOPR has fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range; marginal improvements in macroeconomics are unlikely to change Bitcoin's oscillating pattern.
PANews reported on February 20th that Bitfinex released an analysis report pointing out that declining inflation and rising expectations of interest rate cuts in the US market provide psychological support for risk assets, but the crypto market is more likely to exhibit phased fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend. Balance sheet expansion reduces systemic liquidity risk and historically has been beneficial to scarce assets such as Bitcoin, but the current pace of liquidity recovery is slow. At the beginning of this week, spot Bitcoin selling pressure re-emerged, with cumulative sell-offs reaching billions of dollars. Although the market's ability to absorb selling pressure has improved compared to before, on-chain indicators show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range, reflecting that most cryptocurrencies are shifting to a loss-making state, and structural pressure remains. The current macroeconomic environment provides some liquidity buffer for the crypto market, but it is not enough to support a sustained bull market. Bitcoin has short-term tactical rebound potential, but a long-term structural upward trend still requires clearer signals of declining inflation and confirmation of sustained spot demand.
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