TON Price Prediction: Bears Eye $1.20 Support as Technical Indicators Flash Warning

Rebeca Moen Feb 21, 2026 06:24

Toncoin trades at $1.33 with RSI at 39.80 and bearish MACD momentum. Technical analysis suggests potential decline to $1.29 support before any recovery attempt.

Toncoin (TON) is facing mounting bearish pressure as technical indicators paint a concerning picture for the popular blockchain token. With the current price at $1.33, down 2.20% in the last 24 hours, traders are closely watching key support levels that could determine TON's next major move.

TON Price Prediction Summary

• Short-term target (1 week): $1.20-$1.29 • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $1.15-$1.40 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.40 • Critical support: $1.29

What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Toncoin

While specific analyst predictions are limited for TON in the current market cycle, on-chain metrics suggest increasing selling pressure across the broader altcoin market. According to available data platforms, Toncoin's technical setup mirrors many Layer-1 tokens experiencing similar consolidation patterns.

The absence of fresh bullish narratives from key opinion leaders indicates a wait-and-see approach among major crypto influencers, often a precursor to continued sideways or bearish price action in the short term.

TON Technical Analysis Breakdown

The technical landscape for TON reveals several concerning signals that support a bearish near-term outlook:

RSI Analysis: At 39.80, Toncoin's RSI sits in neutral territory but trending toward oversold conditions. This level typically indicates sellers are gaining control, though there's room for further downside before reaching oversold levels below 30.

MACD Momentum: The MACD histogram at 0.0000 with both MACD (-0.0364) and signal line (-0.0364) in negative territory confirms bearish momentum. This technical configuration suggests selling pressure continues to outweigh buying interest.

Moving Average Resistance: TON faces significant headwinds from multiple moving averages acting as resistance. The token trades well below its SMA 200 at $2.17, indicating a long-term bearish trend. Even shorter-term averages like SMA 7 ($1.40) and SMA 20 ($1.39) are providing resistance.

Bollinger Bands Position: With a %B position of 0.25, TON is trading in the lower quarter of its Bollinger Bands range, suggesting the token is closer to oversold than overbought conditions. The lower band at $1.28 represents immediate technical support.

Toncoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case

Bullish Scenario

For TON price prediction to turn positive, the token needs to reclaim the $1.40 resistance level, which aligns with both the SMA 7 and represents the upper end of the recent trading range. A sustained break above this level could target: - Initial resistance at $1.43 (EMA 26) - Secondary target at $1.50 (Bollinger Band upper limit) - Extended bullish target at $1.55 (SMA 50)

Technical confirmation would require RSI moving above 50 and MACD histogram turning positive with increasing volume.

Bearish Scenario

The current Toncoin forecast leans bearish given the technical setup. Key downside targets include: - Immediate support at $1.29 (strong support level) - Secondary support at $1.28 (Bollinger Band lower limit) - Extended bearish target at $1.20-$1.25 range

Risk factors supporting the bearish case include the widening gap between current price and the SMA 200, persistent negative MACD readings, and the overall crypto market's risk-off sentiment affecting altcoins disproportionately.

Should You Buy TON? Entry Strategy

Based on current technical analysis, aggressive buyers might consider the $1.29-$1.31 zone as a potential entry point, representing the confluence of strong support and the lower Bollinger Band. However, more conservative traders should wait for:

Primary Entry Strategy: - Buy zone: $1.28-$1.31 - Stop-loss: $1.25 (below major support) - Take profit 1: $1.37 (immediate resistance) - Take profit 2: $1.40 (major resistance)

Risk Management: Given the bearish technical setup, position sizing should be conservative. The daily ATR of $0.06 suggests normal volatility, but the proximity to support levels requires tight risk management.

Conclusion

This TON price prediction suggests caution in the near term, with technical indicators pointing toward potential further downside before any meaningful recovery. The $1.29 support level represents a critical juncture for Toncoin - a break below could accelerate selling toward $1.20, while a successful defense might set up a bounce toward $1.40.

The current Toncoin forecast carries a 65% confidence level for testing lower support levels within the next 1-2 weeks, based on the confluence of bearish technical signals. Traders should monitor the $1.29 level closely and be prepared for increased volatility.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.

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