Conservative Supreme Court justice could hand Democrats blowout midterm victory: analysis

Rumors have swirled that conservative Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito may be planning to retire in October, and while such a move would likely secure the lifelong appointment of another conservative justice, it may also blow up in Republicans’ faces and hand Democrats a blowout victory in the upcoming midterm elections, the Intelligencer reported Saturday.

Those who believe Alito is on the cusp of retirement point to the “curious” timing of the release of his upcoming book, set to release on Oct. 6, just one day after the Supreme Court’s 2026-27 term is set to begin. And, if the rumor proves accurate, whoever President Donald Trump nominates as Alito’s successor would be all but certain to be confirmed by the Republican-led Senate.

“If Alito was to retire at the end of the current term (perhaps announcing the retirement earlier), then the shape of the future Supreme Court could become a base-mobilizing issue for the GOP, all right – but potentially also one for Democrats,” wrote Intelligencer columnist Ed Kilgore in an analysis published Saturday.

Kilgore went on to cite what’s sometimes been referred to as the “Kavanaugh’s revenge” theory, the idea that Republicans’ surprise performance in the 2018 midterms – which saw them increase their Senate majority by two seats – was due to backlash over Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings, which saw Democrats fiercely question the nominee over allegations of sexual assault.

While the “Kavanaugh’s revenge” theory ultimately boded well for Republicans – at least, according to those who subscribe to the theory – the political landscape for Republicans in 2026 is so different when compared to 2018, Kilgore argued, that a similar spectacle may end up backfiring on the GOP this time around.

“Even if you believe the Kavanaugh fight provided Republicans with a net benefit in 2018, there’s no reason to assume the same thing will happen in 2026, a year in which the Senate landscape is far less favorable to the GOP than it was in 2018 (according to the Cook Political Report, four of the seven competitive Senate races this year are on GOP turf),” Kilgore suggested.

“We also don’t know how the confirmation hearings for an Alito successor will turn out. But between Alito’s motives for retiring, the GOP’s fear that it could lose control of the confirmation process, and the “Kavanaugh’s revenge” mythology about 2018, don’t be surprised if there’s a Supreme Court fight this summer or fall.”