ETC Weekly Analysis Feb 23

ETC is maintaining its main downtrend structure with a weekly -2.69% decline, testing the critical support around $8.10. The market structure reinforces the bearish bias, but the positive signal from the MACD histogram may carry short-term accumulation signs.

Weekly Market Summary for ETC

ETC closed the week at $8.33 with a -2.69% decline and traded in a volatile range of $8.10 – $8.58. The volume profile showed moderate activity at $65.56M, while the market continues to hold in the overall downtrend structure. In the bigger picture, ETC is underperforming among altcoins; RSI at 38.68 is approaching the oversold region, and the MACD histogram is showing positive values signaling a slight momentum recovery. However, failure to hold above EMA20 ($8.93) activates the short-term bearish filter. This week, signs of transitioning to an accumulation phase in the market structure will be sought, as strategic positions remain risky without a break in the main trend. Click here for detailed ETC spot analysis.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

In long-term timeframes (1W and above), ETC’s market structure exhibits a clear downtrend. The higher high/higher low sequence is broken; the recent peak was rejected from $10.09 resistance, and the price is approaching the lower band of the main descending channel. Trend filters are giving bearish signals: price is not above EMA50 and EMA200, Supertrend indicator is in sell mode. In the market cycle phase, the distribution phase ongoing since fall 2025 dominates; however, doji formations in weekly candle closes can be evaluated as potential reversal signs. In the macro context, the lack of news flow from the Ethereum ecosystem is further pressuring ETC. The trend structure will remain intact until the $8.0963 support breaks.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Volume profile analysis shows accumulation characteristics in the $8.10 – $8.58 range: volume POC (Point of Control) is concentrated around $8.33, but selling pressure increases on tests of the upper band ($8.58). Within the Wyckoff method framework, recent weeks show movements similar to a ‘spring’ test – approach to $8.0963 could be smart money accumulation. Distribution patterns are evident with a failure swing high at the top $8.9176; if rejection continues without volume increase, the distribution phase extends. The current phase is at the threshold of transitioning to accumulation; a break in the on-balance volume (OBV) downtrend would form bullish confluence.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, price is approaching the $8.0963 major support (score 75/100); this level carries 2 support/1 resistance confluence in the 1D timeframe. RSI at 38.68 is starting to show divergence, MACD histogram is expanding to provide positive momentum. Short-term bearish MA death cross (not above EMA20), but candle structure supports with hammer formations. Confluence: aligned with daily pivot $8.33, break above activates $8.58 target. Check ETC futures market data for details.

Weekly Chart View

From the weekly perspective, there is a resistance-heavy structure with 2 support/3 resistance (total 8 strong levels). Price is stuck at weekly EMA20 ($8.93) and $8.9176 resistance (score 66/100); bearish engulfing candles reinforce distribution. Trend intact as long as $10.09 pivot does not break; downside main inflection point at $7.15 (score 60/100). Multi-TF confluence is bearish: similar support/resistance clusters on 3D as well, volume confirmation required for reversal.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: $8.0963 (high probability, multi-TF confirmation), $7.1500 (secondary, psychological). Resistances: $8.9176 (short-term gate), $10.09 (trend reversal pivot). Key inflection point $8.33 (weekly POC); break above triggers accumulation, break below triggers distribution. Risk/reward calculation: upside $11.2550 (score 26), downside $4.9169 (score 22) – strategic R/R around 1:2.5 favors bearish scenario.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

Bullish Case

Bullish scenario activates with weekly close above $8.9176 – targets $10.09, then $11.2550. Position: long entry on $8.58 breakout, stop-loss below $8.0963. Confluence: RSI >50, MACD crossover. Follow ETC and other analyses. Risk 2-3%, horizon 1-4 weeks.

Bearish Case

Bearish scenario: downtrend acceleration on $8.0963 break – targets $7.15, extreme $4.9169. Short entry on $8.10 rejection, stop above $8.58. Volume increase and BTC correlation as triggers. Risk management critical, position size 1-2%.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $64,137 with -4.87% decline pressuring altcoins; BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance creating selling pressure on alts like ETC. ETC/BTC pair is weak, BTC key supports $62,940 / $61,102 – if broken, cascade risk to $7.15 on ETC. Conversely, BTC break above $64,323 could bring altcoin rotation – BTC levels to watch: resistance $66,606, support $49,685.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $8.0963 support hold and $8.9176 resistance test. Watch volume profile, BTC movements will determine correlation. While strategic bias remains bearish, accumulation signals open long opportunities. Monitor market cycle, position traders limit risk.