Why Ohio State Is Favored To Beat Texas In Week 1 Of College Football

College football is back and opens with one of the most hyped games of the season: the No. 1 Texas Longhorns travel to Columbus to face the defending national champions and No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes. The game is a sequel to the College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl semifinal game in January where Ohio State edged Texas in a thriller. Since then, Ohio State has undergone significant upheaval, losing 14 starters, while Texas will feature Heisman-favorite Arch Manning as QB1 at the top of the depth chart. Despite holding the top spot in both the AP and Coaches polls, the Longhorns enter the game as 1.5-point underdogs. ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith took particular issue with Texas coming into the game as the underdog despite their position at the top of the polls, framing the spread as both confusing and controversial.

Vegas oddsmakers are not in the business of ranking teams. Rather, they are in the business of projecting matchups and setting odds that are profitable to the house. In other words, this is not a case of Vegas undervaluing the nation’s top-ranked team. It is the intersection of two truths: Ohio State’s home-field edge is both measurable and proven, and preseason polls are historically unreliable predictors of season-long success. The spread reflects that tension, setting the stage for one of the most intriguing betting lines of opening weekend.

Ohio State, Texas Odds Are Moving

The market movement adds another layer of intrigue. There is a strong public sentiment that Stephen A. is right to question Ohio State as the favorite. At Fanatics Sportsbook, over 60% of bets and 70% of money has been bet on Texas. The inflow of cash of bettors favoring the Longhorns has tightened the spread since it opened. The game originally opened with Ohio State favored by 3 points. The 3-point spread is particularly telling because it is the traditional advantage given to the home team in the spread of an NFL game of otherwise evenly matched opponents.

Home Field Advantage

The role of home field advantage should not be understated. Ohio State plays exceptionally well in Columbus. The Buckeyes have won 90% of their home games in the last four seasons and have the best home record of any college football team in the country over the last twenty seasons. Statistically, Ohio State’s home field advantage is worth about 2.9 points compared to the 2.5-point handicap typically granted to college football home teams. Against the spread, they have been just as strong, covering in 64% of home contests. Moreover, Texas has won just 67% of its road games over the past four years and only 25% of road games as an underdog. The data supports why oddsmakers continue to tilt the line toward the Buckeyes when playing at the Horseshoe.

Preseason Polling Inaccuracies

Part of the disconnect between polls and point spreads comes from the inherent flaws in preseason rankings. Preseason polls are, at best, educated guesses, and there are perennial calls to abolish them altogether. The last time the AP preseason No. 1 finished the season atop the rankings was in 2017. Historically, only about 15% of preseason No. 1 teams finish the year in the same spot. Six times in poll history, the preseason No. 1 team in the country has ended the season unranked. The most recent example was USC in 2012. The lesson here is simple: Vegas cares less about preseason polls than fans or media personalities do.

What It Means for the CFP

Beyond the betting window, the stakes are massive for the College Football Playoff picture. For Texas, a win on the road against the defending champions would validate their No. 1 ranking and give them a signature victory that could anchor their playoff résumé all season long. For Ohio State, defending the Horseshoe against the top-ranked Longhorns would send a message that roster turnover has not dulled their championship pedigree. Because both teams enter in the top three, the loser will likely not be eliminated from CFP contention on the results of this game alone, but the outcome will heavily influence the early playoff narrative and shape how each team’s margin for error is perceived moving forward.