NEO Technical Analysis Feb 24

NEO is maintaining its LH/LL structure amid general altcoin pressure, preserving the downtrend; a bullish signal should be sought with BOS above $2.69, otherwise the risk of dropping below $2.56 increases.

Market Structure Overview

NEO’s current market structure indicates a clear downtrend. The price has been exhibiting a lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern instead of higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) recently, reinforcing its bearish character. The current price is trading at $2.62, with a 24-hour change of -1.99% under negative pressure. Unable to hold above EMA20 ($2.83), the price confirms the short-term bearish EMA structure. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 10 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances weighted on 1W. This structure makes protecting the $2.5677 swing low critical for trend continuation and breaking the $2.6904 swing high critical for change. Market structure analysis is indispensable for identifying BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) opportunities based on swing points; here, with the LH/LL sequence dominant, any BOS level break would be the first signal for a trend reversal.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, the HH/HL structure must form: each new swing high must exceed the previous high, and swing low the previous low. This pattern is absent in NEO at the moment; however, the MACD histogram turning positive and RSI at 35.85 approaching the oversold zone carries short-term recovery potential. A settled close above the $2.6904 resistance (score:69/100) could trigger the first HH formation via BOS and open the path to $2.9299 (score:60/100). Although the Supertrend signal is bearish ($3.13 resistance), the bullish continuation target is set at $3.6210 (score:26). Breaking these levels confirms trend change with CHoCH and increases NEO Spot Analysis opportunities.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strong with LH/LL: the latest swing high at $2.6904 creates pressure below the previous lows of $2.5677 and $2.4160 (both score:66/100). The price remaining below EMA20 supports bearish momentum. If $2.5677 breaks, a new LL forms, activating the bearish breakdown target at $1.7605 (score:22). Even with low RSI, selling pressure continues as long as the trend structure is intact; 4 resistance levels on 1W MTF limit buyers.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS refers to critical breaks that shatter the trend structure: for bullish BOS, a close above $2.6904 is required, invalidating the LH and initiating a search for new HL. CHoCH confirmation requires extension to $2.9299. Bearish BOS confirms LL with a close below $2.5677, accelerating the drop to $2.4160. These levels are strong in MTF (1D/3D/1W) and should be confirmed with volume increase. Post-break retest filters fakeout risk; for example, if a bullish BOS holds the $2.6904 retest, trend shift is confirmed. Market structure analysis provides early entries by tracking these BOS levels, ideal for NEO Futures Analysis.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Latest Swing Highs

The latest swing high at $2.6904 (score:69/100) acts as resistance as LH; if not surpassed, the downtrend continues. The upper level $2.9299 (score:60/100) is reinforced by MTF resistance. These points align with 50%-61.8% fib retracements and should be tested with rejection candles (pinbar/doji). Their break targets new trend highs.

Latest Swing Lows

The latest swing low at $2.5677 (score:66/100) is the main support; a break below deepens LH/LL. The lower level $2.4160 (score:66/100) aligns with 1W support. These lows serve as stop-loss references for long positions; if held, HL formation is expected. Swing points measure trend strength as structural pivots.

Bitcoin Correlation

Altcoins like NEO are highly correlated with BTC; BTC is in a downtrend at $63,198 with a -4.52% drop, Supertrend bearish. If BTC supports at $62,910/$60,008 break, a general selling wave in altcoins pushes NEO below $2.4160. If BTC resistances at $64,620/$66,356 are surpassed, relief comes, supporting NEO’s $2.6904 BOS. BTC dominance increase heightens alt pressure; NEO’s structure depends on BTC holding $62,910. BTC stabilization is essential for altcoin rally.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

The overall structural outlook is bearish with LH/LL-focused downtrend; although the $2.62 range ($2.60-$2.69) shows consolidation, EMA20 resistance dominates. Bullish scenario: transition to HH/HL with $2.6904 BOS, target $3.6210. Bearish scenario: LL deepening with $2.5677 break, path to $1.7605. Watch: RSI divergence, MACD crossover, and volume. Short bias prevails without structure break; aggressive longs risky without CHoCH. Market structures are dynamic, daily closes are decisive. This analysis is price action-based and for educational purposes.