Analyst pinpoints 'one of the larger red flags' about 'rapid decline in Trump's support'

President Donald Trump may not appear to be losing support among his own voters — but one reason for that might be the Trump voters who disapprove of him, now deny they voted for him in the first place.

According to a new survey conducted by The Argument, "Whether they’re lying, misremembering, or rewriting history, 'winner’s recall' is common enough that many reputable pollsters have observed it in past elections. In our national polling of registered voters, though, we’re finding something different: a nontrivial chunk of people who are mad at Trump seem to suddenly have amnesia and no longer admit to having voted for him in 2024."

"Approximately 15% of Trump’s 2024 voters disapproved of his job performance. Among this group, almost one in four didn’t admit to having voted for the president. Thirteen percent even falsely claimed to have voted for Kamala Harris, while 12% claimed they actually didn’t vote at all," wrote political analyst Lakshya Jain. By contrast, "among the 84% who voted for Trump and still approve of him, 98% correctly recalled having voted for him."

This isn't an entirely unheard of phenomenon, Jain noted, as late in the Biden administration, polling suggested Trump had a slightly higher recalled vote than his actual vote. However, "it wasn’t necessarily clear what this was down to" — and only now, data is showing this pattern starkly enough to indicate the phenomenon.

This is an ominous sign for Republicans heading into a midterm election where polls already warn they could face a wipeout.

"When it comes to the recent and rapid decline in Trump’s support, this is probably one of the larger red flags we’ve seen," Jain concluded. "A small (but statistically significant) share of Trump’s own supporters don’t want to associate with him any longer due to dissatisfaction with his performance."