Bitcoin’s Dry Powder Myth Busted: Outflows – Not Buyers – Driving Low SSR

Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 9.36, a level historically associated with significant buying power waiting on the sidelines, but on-chain data shows this metric is flashing a false signal.

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the decline is being driven by capital leaving the ecosystem rather than stablecoin accumulation, which fundamentally alters how investors interpret this classic bullish indicator.

Liquidity Drain, Not Dry Powder

The SSR measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization against total stablecoin supply, with lower readings traditionally suggesting ample stablecoin liquidity available to purchase BTC. However, current conditions tell a different story.

In a February 25 brief, Adler pointed out that USDT capitalization peaked at $187.2 billion on December 30, 2025, and has since contracted to $183.6 billion, a $3.6 billion outflow over 60 days. Additionally, the 30-day change has remained negative for 34 consecutive days, now sitting at -$3.08 billion.

This matters because SSR’s mathematical decline stems from both components weakening simultaneously. Bitcoin’s market cap has dropped roughly 27% during this period, while stablecoin supply also contracted.

The Estimated Leverage Ratio confirms the structural weakness, remaining flat around 0.219 across all exchanges for 90 days despite Bitcoin’s sharp correction. This plateau indicates speculative capital isn’t adding new risk, but crucially, isn’t shedding old risk either, thus creating potential for cascading liquidations on further downside.

Aged Supply, Absent Buyers

Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects the fragility described above, with the asset briefly falling below $63,000 on February 24 before recovering to current levels around $65,400. This price represents a dip of more than 25% across the last 30 days and nearly 27% over one year.

HODL Waves data published recently also revealed a defensive market structure beneath the price action. Coins last moved 3 to 6 months ago now comprise approximately 26% of the circulating supply, up from 19% earlier this month.

These correspond to purchases near the November 2025 peak above $120,000, now held at a loss. Meanwhile, the 6 to 12 month cohort has grown to about 20%, while coins moved within the past month account for less than 10% of supply.

Furthermore, the Realized Cap Net Position Change confirms capital exiting the network, standing at -2.26% over 30 days with $33 billion in value compression since late November.

The distinction between SSR decline through outflow versus accumulation carries real implications. According to Adler, for a genuine trend reversal, two things must happen at the same time: the 30-day USDT change returning to sustained positive territory (confirming fresh capital inflow) and ELR beginning to rise during price stabilization. Until then, the analyst says Bitcoin’s low SSR represents not opportunity, but the mathematical residue of capital departure.

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