Bitcoin Recovery Delayed? Data Points to Potential Sub-$40K Dip

• The Bitcoin price slid to the bottom support at $64,200, signaling a short-term consolidation trend.
• Glassnode’s 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio has now fallen decisively below 1.0, approaching critically low levels.
• Crypto fear and greed index at 11% suggest a bearish sentiment among market participants

On Tuesday, the Bitcoin price plunged to an intraday low of $62,526, registering a 3.26% loss. The downswing triggered due market wide FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) around macro economic tension, maintaining a risk-off sentiment. However, the latest on-chain data indicate BTC’s holders’ average realized losses has exceeded profits, signaling a risk of prolonged correction before price hits bottom support.

On-Chain Metrics Flash Bear Market Warnings

Bitcoin is still in its struggle with the downward pressure in late February 2026, with trades in the low to mid $64,000 range as of February 24th data. The crescent consolidation followed a significant downturn from recent high of $126,273, registering a roughly 50% loss

Glassnode’s 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio is now less than 1.0 and closer to critically low readings. The plunge of the metric below this neutral line reflects widespread realization of loss as a change in hands of BTC happens at deficit rather than gains. In earlier cycles – such as 2018-2019 and 2022 – such phases often lasted for six months or longer, as they were characterized by subdued liquidity, prolonged consolidation, and heavy selling pressure before any sustained rebound.

Whale Alert’s network-wide average buy price is close to $53,400. Founder Frank S. said that past trends of buying costs signal that there could be additional weakness with Bitcoin potentially declining below $40,000 before a strong recovery can develop. He expressed hope for the avoidance of yet another cycle of bearish repetition this time.

These on-chain signals add to the cautious outlook: Dominant loss-taking could prolong the downturn unless balanced by new inflows or stabilizing forces. While there can be some large-holder accumulation providing pockets of support, the regime is reminiscent of past, prolonged bears, which increases risks of deeper tests if the momentum doesn’t shift soon. The next period will tell us whether this continues or ends more quickly than history would have us believe. 

Bitcoin Price Seeks Support at Range Formation

For nearly three weeks, the Bitcoin price has traded in a narrow range of $73,000 to $62,200, projecting an uncertain market trend. With today’s sell-off, the coin price retested the bottom support and witnessed an immediate rebound.

A long-tail rejection candle at this floor indicates intact demand pressure, and that drives prolonged consolidation within this range. If the support holds, the price could rebound roughly 15% to challenge the range ceiling at $73,000 as per the long-term BTC outlook. 

However, with the broader trend bearish, this sideways action holds a higher possibility to replenish the market selling pressure. Thus, a potential breakdown of the $62,200 could push the asset to the $56,000 mark.

The daily chart analysis shows that a falling channel pattern drives the current correction in BTC. Since October 6th, the coin price has been actively resonating within two parallel trendlines.