Bitcoin Dominance will likely remain under close investor watch in September. Although BTC.D has declined for two consecutive months, altcoin rallies remain inconsistent and fall short of altcoin investors’ expectations.
Data shows that a drop in BTC.D does not always mean the start of an altcoin season.
A Different Perspective on Bitcoin Dominance Decline
Recent data indicates that Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) fell from 65% to 58% in the past month — a sharp decrease. Such a drop typically coincides with rising altcoin market capitalization, fitting the definition of an altcoin season many investors anticipate.
However, the market capitalization of altcoins (excluding BTC and stablecoins) dropped by more than $100 billion to $1.31 trillion over the past month. This trend highlights the complex reality of the cryptocurrency market.
Comparing BTC.D, Bitcoin Market Cap, And Altcoin Market Cap (Excluding BTC And Stablecoins). Source: TradingView.The main reason for this decline is that Bitcoin’s price fell alongside the altcoin market cap. But Bitcoin declined faster than altcoins. Bitcoin’s market cap dropped 11% in August, while altcoins (excluding BTC and stablecoins) fell by 8%.
This led to a fall in Bitcoin’s dominance, creating the misleading impression that an altcoin season was underway.
In addition, well-known analyst Crypto King noted on X that Bitcoin dominance could stabilize and even rebound in September. He predicted that if this happens, the chance of an altcoin season breaking out will decrease.
Bitcoin Dominance. Source: Crypto KingA Selective Altcoin Season
In reality, the altcoin season is unfolding in a very selective manner. Several altcoins performed well in the past month, such as LINK, PYTH, OKB, and CRO. Yet each of them had specific news catalysts driving their gains.
Even so, many other analysts remain optimistic about the possibility of a broad altcoin season emerging in September. They point to several supporting factors: the US M2 money supply reaching a record high, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and Ethereum’s (ETH) strong performance against Bitcoin. Analysts argue that this outperformance could soon become a broader driver for altcoins.
The contradictions among these predictions reflect the distinct features of each market cycle. A decline in BTC.D does not always equal an altcoin season, and each altcoin season plays out differently from one cycle to another.
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