Bitcoin Crash from $126k Follows 2021 Bear Market Setup—Here’s What it Means ⋆ ZyCrypto

Bitcoin’s retreat from its $126,000 peak in October 2025 is unfolding in a pattern that looks very much like the 2021 to 2022 bear market, according to market analysts tracking cycle structure.

In the previous downturn, Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021, fell 30% in the following month to $48,000, and was widely dismissed as a routine correction. A rebound in month four retraced to $48,000 before a deeper slide took hold.

By month seven, the price had dropped 56% to $30,000 amid the collapses of LUNA and Three Arrows Capital. Finally, by month twelve, it reached a 77% drawdown at $15,700, marking the cycle low.

Market watcher and analyst Sherlock Whales revealed that the current sequence has striking similarities, albeit on a compressed timeline. After reaching $126,000, Bitcoin declined 30% to $88,000 by month three, again framed by many as a correction. A brief recovery to $97,000 followed before a second leg lower sent the price to $60,000, accompanied by the largest single-day realized loss on record.

Now in month four and a half, Bitcoin sits near $66,000, roughly 47% below its peak. If the historical pattern repeats, analysts warn that months six through twelve could bring the steepest losses, implying a potential 70-77% retracement toward the $38,000 region.

Meanwhile, recent price action data from CoinMarketCap shows fragility. Bitcoin is down 4.91% to $63,983.94 over the past 24 hours, tracking a 4.58% decline in total crypto market capitalization.

The decline comes amid new U.S. tariff uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariff announcement, escalating U.S. tensions in the Middle East, and more than $125 million in long liquidations.

While some traders cite oversold conditions and rising volume as grounds for a short squeeze above $65,000, a sustained break below $60,000 could expose $53,000 next.