Bitcoin vs Gold: Samson Mow Says BTC Is Trading Far Below Fair Value

According to Mow, Bitcoin is currently trading between 24% and 66% below its historical trend when measured against gold’s market capitalization and the size of the global money supply. At the same time, he argues that gold has become overstretched after pushing to fresh record highs.

Undervaluation Signal: The BTC-to-Gold Z-Score

At the center of Mow’s thesis is the BTC-to-gold ratio Z-score, a metric that tracks how far Bitcoin has deviated from its long-term valuation trend relative to gold.

As of March 1, 2026, the Z-score stands at -1.24. Historically, Bitcoin has staged major rallies when this reading dropped below -2.

During the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, the metric fell beneath -2 and Bitcoin rallied roughly 300% over the following year. In November 2022, amid the FTX collapse, the Z-score dropped below -3, followed by a 150% recovery in the next 12 months.

While today’s -1.24 reading is not yet at historical extremes, Mow views it as an early signal that Bitcoin is trading well below its long-term equilibrium relative to gold.

Gold’s Market Cap Gap vs Bitcoin

The valuation gap between the two assets remains substantial.

By late 2025, gold’s total market capitalization was estimated between $20.8 trillion and $28 trillion. Bitcoin, by comparison, was valued at roughly $2.2 trillion – just 8% to 10% of gold’s size.

Meanwhile, global M2 money supply across major economies hovered around $103 trillion in early 2025. Combined, gold and Bitcoin represented about $30 trillion in value, or roughly 29% of global liquidity.

In 2025, gold significantly outperformed Bitcoin in the short term. Gold surged approximately 40% by October, while Bitcoin gained about 20% over the same period. Mow argues this divergence has pushed gold into “overextended” territory, especially with April futures recently closing near $5,247.90 per ounce.

The $1 Million Thesis and the “Omega Candle”

Mow’s long-term outlook remains aggressively bullish. He has repeatedly projected a decade-long bull market for Bitcoin lasting through 2035.

His headline target remains $1 million per BTC, which he believes could materialize between 2031 and 2033 – or potentially earlier if adoption accelerates. A key part of his narrative is what he calls the “Omega Candle,” a dramatic breakout move once Bitcoin convincingly clears the $100,000 level, triggering overwhelming demand and a structural repricing into six-figure territory.

Beyond price, Mow also expects sovereign adoption to expand. He predicts that at least three additional nation-states could implement formal Bitcoin strategies in 2025, following the path taken by El Salvador.

Opposing Views: Risk-On Behavior Still a Concern

Not all analysts agree with Mow’s optimism.

Some market strategists warned in early 2026 that Bitcoin could revisit the $50,000 region amid geopolitical tensions and broader investor uncertainty. Critics also highlight a recurring pattern: during periods of crisis, gold tends to behave as a traditional safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin often trades more like a high-growth technology stock, reacting to liquidity conditions and risk sentiment.

For now, the debate centers on whether Bitcoin is truly lagging behind gold – or whether the market is correctly pricing in macro risk.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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