Bitcoin supply in loss nears 46% as SOPR stays sub-1

Approximately 45–46% of BTC supply is in loss now

Approximately 9.09 million Bitcoins are in a loss-making state, about 46% of circulating supply. As reported by KuCoin News, comparable on-chain readings show roughly 9.3 million coins, or about 45% (https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/9-3m-bitcoins-in-loss-highest-since-jan-2023?utm_source=openai). In this context, “in loss” means the current market price sits below holders’ aggregate acquisition levels inferred on-chain.

The positive start to 2026 faded quickly, with a swift drop to local lows near $60,000 in early February, as reported by CryptoPotato (https://cryptopotato.com/5-straight-months-of-losses-bitcoin-suffers-yet-another-double-digit-slide/). This backdrop helps explain the elevated share of loss-bearing supply.

Why this matters: SOPR below 1 and Pi Cycle consolidation

SOPR below 1 indicates coins are being spent at a loss, a condition that often suppresses momentum until sellers exhaust. In parallel, Pi Cycle consolidation suggests a cooling phase rather than an impulsive trend, potentially tempering breakouts.

“Bitcoin price outlook remains bearish as Pi Cycle signals consolidation and SOPR below one limits breakout above $70,000,” said BeInCrypto (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-bear-market-could-get-worse/). This framing aligns with recent challenges at prior cost-basis levels.

When a large share of supply sits just underwater, holders often sell into strength to exit at break-even. With SOPR sub-1, marginal supply tends to appear near recent cost bases, reinforcing resistance until demand absorbs it.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin trades around $66,235 with bearish sentiment, 6.05% volatility, and an RSI near 39.79. The 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (approximately $78,023 and $97,334) remain above spot, indicating unresolved overhead supply.

Methodology, data sources, and on-chain versus off-chain caveats

Glassnode on-chain data: defining and measuring ‘supply in loss’

Supply in loss classifies coins whose last on-chain transfer price exceeds the current market price. Reported percentages can vary due to circulating-supply denominators, price feeds, and rounding conventions across providers and time windows.

Entity-adjustments, UTXO selection rules, and intraday sampling can further shift readings. These methodological choices explain why closely clustered figures, like 45% versus 46%, appear across reputable datasets.

Institutional context: Coinbase Institutional perspectives and OTC/ETF effects

Institutional positioning can offset retail-driven selling pressure. As reported by CryptoSlate, a Coinbase Institutional survey found roughly 70% of respondents viewed Bitcoin as undervalued in recent months (https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-institutions-admit-we-are-in-a-bear-market-but-70-say-the-price-is-still-undervalued/?utm_source=openai). Such views can stabilize flows even as unrealized losses expand.

Off-chain execution through OTC desks and ETFs may not immediately register in on-chain metrics, as reported by Decrypt (https://decrypt.co/328136/chain-metrics-miss-full-picture-institutional-bitcoin-buying?utm_source=openai). This gap can blur real-time cost-basis inference during heavy institutional rebalancing.

“a new analysis suggests Bitcoin investors need to hold for at least three years to virtually eliminate the risk of losses,” reported Seoul Economic Daily (https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/03/02/bitcoin-holders-who-wait-3-years-face-near-zero-loss). Holding horizons materially influence realized-loss probabilities across cycles.

FAQ about Bitcoin supply in loss

How does Glassnode calculate ‘Bitcoin supply in loss’ and why do different sources report slightly different figures?

By comparing each coin’s last on-chain transfer price to today’s price; differing circulating-supply denominators, entity filters, and rounding cause small discrepancies across providers.

What do SOPR below 1 and the Pi Cycle indicator suggest for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook?

SOPR below 1 implies realized losses on spend; Pi Cycle consolidation signals trend cooling. Combined, they often cap upside until demand absorbs overhead supply.