Arthur Hayes Predicts HYPE Token Could Hit $150 by August 2026

• Arthur Hayes predicts Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could climb to $150 by August 2026.
• Hyperliquid directs 97% of protocol revenue toward HYPE buybacks, Hayes noted.
• Hayes’ model expects 30-day annualized revenue to rise from $843 million to $1.4 billion by August.

Co-Founder of BitMEX Arthur Hayes says the Hyperliquid token (HYPE) could reach $150 by August 2026 if the exchange regains strong revenue growth and continues taking market share from centralized exchanges.

HYPE traded near $30 at the time of Hayes’ analysis. A move to $150 would represent roughly a 5x increase in about six months. At press time, CoinMarketCap shows HYPE priced at $34.

Hayes argued in a new blog post titled “$HYPE Man” that exchange tokens tend to perform well during slow or uncertain crypto markets because trading platforms still earn fees even when prices stall.

Hyperliquid Revenue Model Drives the Bull Case

Hyperliquid is currently the largest revenue-generating crypto project outside of stablecoins. According to Hayes, about 97% of the protocol’s revenue goes toward buying back HYPE tokens from the open market.

Hayes’ model assumes Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue rises from $843 million in March to $1.4 billion by August. The exchange already reached that $1.4 billion run rate once before, in August of the previous year.

If revenue returns to that level and the market values the token at a higher earnings multiple, the price could rise sharply.

Small Market Share Gains Could Double Revenue

Hyperliquid does not need a large expansion in global crypto derivatives activity to reach Hayes’ revenue target.

The platform only needs to capture a 3.97% increase in perpetual futures market share from centralized exchanges to reach the $1.4 billion annualized revenue run rate.

Perpetual futures trading is one of the largest segments in crypto markets. If traders move even a small portion of their activity from centralized exchanges to Hyperliquid, the protocol’s revenue could grow quickly.

Hayes notes that similar dynamics played out during the previous cycle. The decentralized exchange GMX reached $90 in April 2023 after dominating perpetual DEX volume and distributing protocol revenue to token holders.

HIP-3 Markets Are Driving New Trading Volume

Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 system allows permissionless listing of perpetual markets. Anyone who stakes 500,000 HYPE tokens can launch new trading pairs using the exchange’s engine.

Projects have already begun using the system to create new markets. TradeXYZ launched perpetual contracts tied to gold, silver, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500.

These markets are less than three months old but already handle hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in daily trading volume, Hayes noted.

HIP-3 products currently generate around 10% of Hyperliquid’s total revenue despite having existed for only four months.

Hayes expects HIP-3 revenue to grow 160% between March and August, helping push total protocol revenue up by 66% during the same period.

Related: Hyperliquid Changes the Onchain Financial Services Narrative, “Opens Pandora’s Box”