Fed Meeting, $100 Oil, and Nvidia (NVDA) GTC Conference Dominate Week Ahead

Key Takeaways

• Wall Street futures climbed Monday following three consecutive weeks of market declines
• Crude oil surged above $100 per barrel as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensifies inflation concerns
• Federal Reserve policy decision arrives Wednesday; Chair Powell’s commentary will be closely monitored
• Nvidia (NVDA) launches its GTC 2026 developer conference Monday featuring CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote address
• Major earnings releases scheduled from Micron, FedEx, Dollar Tree, and Alibaba throughout the week

U.S. equity futures showed positive momentum Monday morning, recovering from a challenging period for major indices. Dow futures advanced 141 points, while S&P 500 futures increased 33 points and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 131 points.

The upward movement comes after three consecutive weekly declines across major benchmarks. Last week saw the S&P 500 decline 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite slip 1.3%.

Energy markets have been the primary catalyst behind recent market turbulence. The military conflict involving Iran has entered its third week with no apparent resolution in sight.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint located south of Iran, facilitates the movement of approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil daily. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has declared its intention to prevent “a liter of oil” from passing through this strategic waterway. This narrow passage accounts for roughly one-fifth of worldwide tanker traffic.

Oil prices temporarily breached the $100 per barrel threshold last Sunday, marking the first occurrence since Russia’s military action in Ukraine during 2022. Brent crude advanced 2.7% to reach $105.90 on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 2.0% to settle at $98.75.

Trump specifically called out China and indicated he might cancel the scheduled April summit with President Xi Jinping unless Beijing leverages its diplomatic relationships to reopen the blocked waterway.

The International Energy Agency announced plans to deploy 411.9 million barrels from strategic emergency stockpiles to mitigate potential disruptions to global supply chains.

All Eyes on Federal Reserve Policy Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its latest monetary policy session. The benchmark Fed funds rate currently stands in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Market participants overwhelmingly expect the central bank to maintain rates at current levels.

Chair Powell’s post-announcement press conference may prove more consequential than the rate decision itself. Several committee members advocate for rate cuts citing softness in employment data. Conversely, other policymakers express concern about energy-driven price pressures potentially accelerating. This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference before his chairmanship concludes in May.

Goldman Sachs analysts project that an extended 60-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude to an average of $93 per barrel during the fourth quarter.

Nvidia Conference and Corporate Earnings Calendar

Nvidia’s annual GTC 2026 developer conference commences Monday. CEO Jensen Huang is anticipated to introduce a revolutionary inference-optimized processor incorporating technology from Groq, a specialized startup Nvidia purchased for $17 billion last December.

Micron Technology delivers quarterly results Wednesday. The memory semiconductor manufacturer’s shares have surged more than fourfold over the trailing twelve months. Its most recent quarter demonstrated a robust 60% year-over-year revenue increase.

FedEx announces earnings Thursday, alongside Alibaba. Dollar Tree also reports this week, providing insight into consumer spending patterns. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng releases results Friday.

The February Producer Price Index data arrives Wednesday, following January’s report which revealed wholesale inflation accelerated beyond analyst expectations.

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