Today’s Gains Are Not Enough

Today, the price of Bitcoin recorded a sudden gain. 

In fact, in just over six hours, it went from $71,000 to $74,000, but then it fell back to $73,000.

These are movements that seem significant because they are swift, but in reality, they do not profoundly alter the trend of recent times. 

The Trend

On Friday, February 6th, the price of Bitcoin had reached the bottom of the decline from late January/early February. 

That peak was reached at around $60,000, but in reality, excluding the technical phase of the decline due to the forced liquidation of long positions, the bottom was hit around $62,500.

However, on the same day, there was a rebound that ended up bringing it back to around $70,000 the following day. 

Starting precisely from February 7, a long period of lateralization began, characterized by volatility that was not low, but not particularly high either, with an initial breakout attempt in early March, which failed in less than 24 hours. 

Excluding that failed attempt, the lateralization for over a month now has forced the price of BTC to move within a range between $62,500 and $71,500.

Today’s Breakout

In reality, as already mentioned, on March 4th the resistance around $71,500 was broken, but the price of Bitcoin remained above that threshold for only a few hours. 

A second breakout occurred on Friday, but once again it lasted only a few hours. 

The third breakout occurred last night. 

The point is that, for now, there is still no clear signal indicating that this latest break of the resistance around $71,500 is the decisive one. 

In fact, there are signals indicating the possibility that this could also be a false signal. However, this time there are also signals suggesting a potentially different outcome. 

The First Scenario

The bearish signals are coming from the whales. 

In fact, in recent days there have been some significant BTC deposits on crypto exchanges. These are predominantly deposits made by whales, suggesting that they are preparing to sell to cash out. 

In reality, the return to $73,000 this morning, after the peak of $74,000 reached during the night, is likely due to the monetization by some whales who took advantage of these prices to close some of their short-term positions in profit. 

It should be noted, however, that these are deposits of still very limited size, so the situation might be less concerning than it might appear at a superficial analysis. 

What is certain is that several whales in recent weeks have accumulated BTC when the price was below $70,000, and some of them have decided to cash in on the gains today. 

It is possible that these are primarily leveraged long positions opened in recent weeks with short-term or at most medium-short-term objectives. This effectively makes monetization at current prices inevitable. 

If such sell-offs prevail, there is a serious possibility that it could be the third failed attempt to surpass $71,500 in the month of March. 

The Second Scenario

However, it is also possible to envision a second scenario. 

In fact, so far only a relatively small portion of the long positions opened between February and early March have been closed. 

Although this does not necessarily mean that whales are expecting further price increases, it is still compatible with a similar scenario. 

The fact is that American whales most likely have not yet resumed operations after the weekend closure. Additionally, in these cases, they may prefer to close long positions gradually to avoid driving prices down too much while they are closing them. 

At the current state of affairs, it is not possible to clearly discern what their strategy is, although the purchases made in February strongly suggest that they are not merely short-term operations. 

Although it cannot be stated with certainty that the whales have gone long in recent weeks with long-term objectives, it is at least plausible that they have done so, in part, also with medium-term objectives, as well as short-term ones. 

Indeed, even today, as during the previous two attempts, their sales appear to be almost measured, as if they are in no hurry to sell and prefer not to increase the selling pressure too much to avoid driving the price down. 

Such an attitude effectively denies the existence of panic among the whales operating on BTCUSD, and this at least allows for hope that the situation might improve. 

The Forecasts

Currently, many medium-term bearish forecasts continue to circulate. 

Many indeed continue to believe that the 2026 bottom may not have been reached yet, but there are also emerging hypotheses that there could be a temporary rebound before further declines. 

This last hypothesis appears to be compatible with the second scenario just described, namely the one in which whales are selling little at the moment, even though they are in profit, because they anticipate the possibility of further monetization in the coming weeks, possibly even at higher prices. 

However, after the crash at the beginning of February, it appears they haven’t bought much, so if they continue to sell in the coming weeks or months, the price is unlikely to break through the $80,000 mark robustly and significantly, and at that point, retail sales will eventually kick in as well.

Therefore, the situation remains uncertain, although it is much less problematic than feared just a month ago.