The PEPIF 2026 energy forum and the war in Iran

Last week, on March 12, I attended a huge annual energy forum, the Philippine Electric Power Industry Forum (PEPIF) 2026, held at John Hay Convention Center in Baguio City, organized by the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP).

The ongoing fuel supply disruption due to the US/Israel-Iran war was naturally mentioned and discussed. In an opening Keynote Message by Department of Energy (DoE) Secretary Sharon S. Garin (read by her staff), she reiterated that we need energy resilience despite unstable geopolitical developments in the Middle East that adversely affect energy prices and electricity markets.

Ms. Garin has been the energy secretary for only eight months and now the world has entered a Distressing Oil (price) Explosion. The supply of very useful hydrocarbon commodities, oil and gas, is now tightening with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

I checked the prices of certain commodities after two weeks of the war. The price of Dubai crude oil is up by 80%, the Japan Korea Market (JKM) LNG price is up by 51%, and TTF gas in Europe is up by 67%. Countries and companies rushed to coal, whose price is now up by 16%, and not to solar and wind power where the price index changed by 2.4% and -4.5% respectively.

The prices of various byproducts of oil and gas — fertilizers, industrial and petrochemical products like naphtha, urea, bitumen, methanol, polypropylene, polyethylene, etc. — are up (see the table).

Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN) issued a statement through its president and CEO Manny Rubio, saying they are improving their power generation resilience via “high availability through rigorous plant maintenance, efficient operations, and dedication of our people. We also have sufficient fuel supply for our existing generation facilities… strengthening our long-term contribution to the region’s energy security by investing in new capacities, including large scale renewable energy projects such as the 3,500 MWp (megawatt-peak) MTerra Solar combined with 4,500 MWhr (megawatt-hour) battery energy storage system.”

I recognize the important contribution of MGEN in electricity stability via its coal plants in Luzon, Cebu, and Iloilo-Panay. Last week MTerra Solar started contributing to the grid with an 85 MW plus battery. Good.

Back to PEPIF 2026. Another keynote speaker that day was Joseph S. Yu, president and CEO of SN Aboitiz Power (SNAP) who talked about “Beyond Megawatts: SNAP’s Approach to Responsible, Resilient, and Reliable Power.”

They operationalize the energy trilemma — energy equity, security, and sustainability — via their current 673-MW hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) capacity in Northern Luzon. They have the Binga HEPP with 140 MW and the Ambuklao HEPP with 112.5 MW both in Benguet, the Magat HEPP with 388 MW in Isabela-Ifugao, and the Maris HEPP with 8.5 MW in Isabela.

SNAP owns only the HEPPs, not the dams, weirs, and reservoirs that are still owned by either the National Power Corp. – Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (NPC-PSALM) or the National Irrigation Administration. SNAP got these HEPPs up and running after few years of upgrades and repairs, and supplied electricity to the grid while sending money to PSALM and the Department of Finance via privatization proceeds. Ambuklao was upgraded from 75 to 112.5 MW, Binga was upgraded from 100 to 140 MW, and Magat was upgraded from 360 to 388 MW. The engineers and management guys of SNAP are brilliant.

In the afternoon I moderated the only panel discussion that day. The six speakers were Energy officials Fielmor C. Amor and Jhannelyn D. Marasigan, Energy Regulatory Commission Director Sharon O. Montaner, Philippines Independent Power Producers Association (PIPPA) Chairman Roman Miguel de Jesus, Ateneo Economics Professor Fernando T. Aldaba, and NGCP’s Redi Allan B. Remoroza.

Each speaker was asked three questions. Here are some of them.

1. Should the DoE reconsider its “coal repurposing” plan given the shift to coal by many countries as oil-gas become more expensive now? Mr. Amor replied that so far it has not come to the point that the DoE should stop coal repurposing and continue its high renewable energy targets. The DoE is doing other measures to cushion the impact to consumers of high oil and gas prices.

2. Should the Philippines tap possible extra oil-gas sources from any from our ASEAN neighbors (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei)? Ms. Marasigan said that the DoE is looking at the situation and possibly maximizing other resources. Mr. Amor added that biofuels could contribute more inputs to the country’s gasoline-diesel needs.

3. Should the ERC target higher power generation per capita, not “low price at all costs” and if the ERC is bending  over backwards to accommodate the offshore wind companies that will get P11/kWh green energy auction rate? ERC’s Ms. Montaner said that it is not really a lower but rather a reasonable price that they target to protect the consumers while encouraging more efficient power plants to come in and not leaving ourselves highly exposed to energy price shocks like now. And the ERC did not bend over backwards; they have been transparent and made public each of the 44 parameters they used in their computations.

4. Should PIPPA push back on anti-coal narratives given that the Philippines has very low coal generation per capita among eight East Asian nations? Mr. De Jesus said that countries’ natural endowments contribute to their energy mix, like Vietnam has more hydro, Indonesia so much coal they are exporting it. The independent power producers decide what energy technology and sources are feasible for different consumers.

5. Are the many pessimistic scenarios justified given that this is not the first or second or third oil price shock the world has seen? Ateneo’s Mr. Aldaba said that oil price shocks are triggers but there are other factors that contribute to lower growth performance of many countries.

6. Is the NGCP ready for the DoE plan of 19 to 50 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind (OSW) power by 2050 or just 24 years from now? NGCP’s Mr. Remoroza answered that the NGCP is not ready today for those huge OSW plans, but they have already conducted a systems impact study (SIS) of 30 GW of OSW, and that it is good that in GEA-5 there are only 3.3 GW of OSW. The NGCP is now preparing the interconnection from southern Mindoro to Batangas, they have already upgraded this to 500 kilovolts (kV), then come the overhead lines within Mindoro. In Northern Luzon, the NGCP already has a 500 kV backbone.

Thanks to Arjon Valencia of IEMOP for giving me the opportunity to be part of PEPIF 2026. Thanks to the sponsors — SN Aboitiz Power, Meralco PowerGen Corp., ACEN, and Exist — for helping IEMOP roll out the logistics for that forum.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an internationa fellow of the Tholos Foundation.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com