Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $74K Without Dropping: Can Bulls Break Bear Flag Top? – BTC TA March 18, 2026

When the $BTC price posted a higher high at $76K, arriving at the top of the bear flag as it did so, one might have expected a pull-back with the bears taking back control for a while. Instead, what we have is the price maintaining around $74K. Is Bitcoin setting up for a bullish breakout?

A break up or down?

Source: TradingView

The short-term time frame tells us that the $BTC price is being corralled into an ever-tightening space formed by the top trendline of the bear flag, and the minor ascending trendline. There are perhaps another couple of days before one of these trendlines has to give.

Of course, the minor trendline is of very little strength and importance when compared with the top trendline of the bear flag, and the price can fall through it relatively easily. That said, such an occurrence would not necessarily put the bulls off. The price can still continue to chop sideways until the bulls are ready for another breakout attempt.

Looking at the Stochastic RSI indicators for this 4-hour time frame, they look as though they are getting close to a bottom and a potential crossover back to the upside. Could a breakout surge be on its way?

The probabilities favour a rejection

Source: TradingView

The daily time frame gives us a bird’s eye view of this bear flag and the previous one. It can be observed that the $BTC price is near the breakout point at the top of the bear flag. That said, wouldn’t this pattern setup, just like the previous one, suggest that the most probable outcome is for a dip back down into the flag? 

Nevertheless, everyone knows that when the market is expecting a certain outcome, the opposite is very likely to happen. Could the breakout occur, hit the top of the descending channel (and the 100-day SMA)? A rejection from there could see the price come back to the top of the bear flag, followed by a bounce, or a reentry into the bear flag? All pure speculation, but we know that the market will do its utmost to wrongfoot the majority of traders and investors.

The two indicators at the bottom of the chart are less about speculation, and they are probably favouring the rejection thesis. Firstly, the Stochastic RSI indicators in the daily time frame have reached their top limit and are starting to roll over, suggesting that momentum could be dropping soon.

Secondly, the RSI illustrates another ascending channel. This is much more likely to see a break down than a break to the upside. Therefore, the cold and clinical view is that a rejection is the more likely outcome.

Weekly MACD posturing a potential rally

Source: TradingView

Bringing the MACD indicator into the weekly time frame makes for interesting viewing. The indicator lines are at their lowest point in Bitcoin’s history, and as can be seen, the blue MACD indicator line is bending up to potentially cross above the red signal line – usually the sign of a big rally, as long as the cross does take place of course.

It should also be noted that the pink histogram bars are getting ever smaller. Once we get the first green bar that’s also a good sign that a rally is about to get started.

Conclusion

In conclusion, there is conflicting data which favours the bulls and bears alike. Notwithstanding, if it were easy to forecast a bottom for the $BTC price, we would all be millionaires. Bottoms are normally tortuous and devious. For an asset such as Bitcoin, a DCA strategy is often the best way to go. It’s not necessary to pick the absolute low point of this bear market, it’s more important to have some skin in the game when the next big rally begins.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.