SkyBridge Founder: Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Still Alive, Q4 Rally Expected

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci says Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle remains intact and expects a new bull market to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026, even as BTC trades roughly 46% below its all-time high amid extreme fear across the crypto market.

Scaramucci, the managing partner of the $3 billion-plus alternative investment firm, characterized the current Bitcoin drawdown as a “garden variety” correction consistent with historical cycle pullbacks. He pointed to long-term holders and early adopters who sold at the $100,000 psychological level as a key driver of the downturn.

“We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Scaramucci said in an interview reported by CoinTelegraph.

His forecast is directional rather than tied to a single price target. While various outlets have attributed figures ranging from $150,000 to $200,000 to Scaramucci’s longer-term outlook, the verified claim is that he expects the cycle to produce a meaningful rally beginning in Q4 2026. He previously expected Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2025, a target that was missed after BTC peaked near $126,080 in October 2025 and then reversed sharply.

Scaramucci acknowledged that institutional investors and Bitcoin ETF inflows have “muted” the traditional cycle pattern but argued they have not eliminated it. The self-reinforcing nature of cycle belief among large holders, he said, continues to drive the sell-the-top, buy-the-bottom behavior that defines each phase.

Halving History: Why the Four-Year Framework Persists

The Bitcoin four-year cycle thesis is anchored to halving events, which cut the block reward in half roughly every four years. The most recent halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

Prior cycles have followed a recognizable pattern. After the November 2012 halving, Bitcoin peaked approximately 12 months later in November 2013. The July 2016 halving preceded a peak in December 2017, roughly 17 months later. And the May 2020 halving led to a cycle top in November 2021, about 18 months after the supply cut.

Applying that framework to the April 2024 halving, a cycle peak 12 to 18 months later would have landed between April and October 2025. Bitcoin did reach its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, fitting neatly within that window. The question now is whether the cycle has already peaked or whether, as Scaramucci argues, the current correction is a mid-cycle pause before a second leg higher.

Scaramucci’s Q4 2026 call would place the next major move 24 to 30 months after the halving, longer than any prior cycle’s peak-to-halving gap. He cited the 2023 post-FTX recovery as evidence that bull markets tend to emerge during periods of “extreme apathy,” drawing a parallel to current conditions.

Bitcoin at $68K: Extreme Fear Meets Institutional Patience

Bitcoin traded near $68,087 at the time of research, down roughly 46% from its October 2025 record. The cryptocurrency has fallen about 6% over the past seven days, with $3 billion in long positions facing liquidation risk if prices slide below $65,000.

The Fear and Greed Index sits at 8, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. That reading marks one of the lowest scores since the FTX collapse in late 2022, a period Scaramucci specifically referenced as a precursor to the subsequent recovery.

The gap between retail panic and institutional conviction is stark. While the index reflects broad market anxiety, Scaramucci’s stance represents a contrarian institutional view that the cycle’s mechanics remain intact despite the drawdown. Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume of $28.58 billion and market capitalization of $1.36 trillion suggest the asset remains deeply liquid even in fear-driven conditions.

Multiple factors are pressuring prices beyond the cycle dynamics. Bitcoin’s drop to $68K has coincided with broader Fed policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions that have weighed on risk assets more broadly. Meanwhile, the crypto ecosystem faces persistent security challenges, with incidents like hackers exploiting fake app stores to steal digital assets adding to market unease.

With over 20 million of the 21 million maximum BTC already in circulation, supply-side dynamics from the halving will take longer to manifest in price as each incremental reduction represents a smaller percentage of total supply.

For those tracking the cycle thesis, the key signals to watch include quarterly ETF net flow data, which will show whether institutional accumulation continues through the choppy period Scaramucci forecasts for mid-2026, and on-chain metrics like exchange reserves and leveraged positioning trends that historically signal accumulation phases before cycle rallies.

Whether Scaramucci’s Q4 2026 call proves accurate or joins his missed $150,000 2025 target, the halving cycle framework remains one of the most closely watched models in crypto. The next six months will test whether institutional conviction can override the extreme fear currently gripping the market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.