The Altcoin Index has been hovering around 53, fueling speculation that altcoin season may be near.
An analyst on X, Max Crypto, recently forecast that the next cycle would start in Q4. He cited pro-crypto regulation and potential federal rate cuts as major drivers.
However, his outlook contrasts with commentary posted by Pulsechaiin on X. As per the analysis, argued that altcoin season will only emerge once markets escape the prevailing macro bear trap.
At the same time, technical signals are aligning. The Altcoin Index completed a cup-and-handle pattern, pointing to a potential move toward 100 from its current level of 53.
Altcoin Season Will Start in Q4?
Once the altcoin season starts in the fourth quarter of 2025, portfolios will hit all-time highs as various cryptocurrencies record 10x to 20x gains, said Max Crypto.
Historically, crypto markets have followed a predictable bull cycle where Bitcoin rallies to a new all-time high, investors take profits and the liquidity flows to alternative cryptocurrencies like Ethereum.
This period where the money moves from Bitcoin and rotates across altcoins is called the altcoin season.
Since Q4 2024, the altcoin index chart has been pointing towards BTC dominance. As per a tweet by Pulsechaiin OG, the market entered into a consolidation period between March and July.
That consolidation period launched the largest cryptocurrency to a new all-time high at $124,500.
However, the failure to sustain a higher high both this month and in December 2025 when it reached $100,000 is what has delayed the altcoin season.
A cup and handle pattern printed on the altcoin season index chart completed the handle last week. According to the analyst, the season is likely to kick off once Bitcoin breaks out of macro bear trap and prints a higher high.
Is this Bull Market Cycle Different?
Meanwhile, the current bull market is the one where key growth drivers prevail. They are a combination of institutional adoption, a pro-crypto Trump administration in the United States, corporate treasuries, exchange-traded funds and retail.
As such, it’s only reasonable that the cycle may work differently. That’s considering Bitcoin already reached multiple record highs without sparking outperformance by altcoins.
Besides, Bitcoin has delivered approximately 79% returns in the last one year. It is a higher figure compared to the 16% delivered by the S & P 500.
For this reason, investors might have settled on more predictable but long-term returns provided by Bitcoin compared to the higher risk associated with altcoins.
Ethereum Vs Bitcoin 3-month Gains Indicate a Positive Sign for Altcoins
On-chain insights on CryptoQuant show the ETH/BTC ratio reached multiple yearly highs and was supported by record volumes across both spot and derivatives markets.
This outperformance , according to the blockchain data platform, signals short-term market dynamics are shifting in favor of Ethereum.
In addition, Ethereum’s percentage gains over the last three months reached 63% which is higher compared to Bitcoin’s 3.7%, as per data on TradingView.
Nonetheless, Ethereum is yet to hit an all-time high since November 2021 and currently faces strong selling pressure at $4,800.
At the same time, the largest altcoin has also not managed to spark an overall shift in market dominance.
Still, participants remain convinced institutional flows, RWA tokenization and ETF adoption will push the price forward and shift dominance.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/08/20/altcoin-season-set-to-begin-in-q4-analyst-says-as-index-forms-cup-handle/
