Bitcoin Price Prediction: How Low Can BTC Price Fall in the Next Bear Market?

Key Insights:

• A top expert sparks discussions with his Bitcoin price prediction, hinting at a drop to as low as $37k in the next bear market.
• Into the Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen says he expects Bitcoin to face a major correction of 70% in the next bear market.
• Bitcoin dominance has dropped from 65% to 57.16%, as the altcoin season index jumped to 80%.

Bitcoin dominance has dropped from 65% to 57.16%, marking its lowest point since February. This shows that capital and liquidity are moving into alternative cryptocurrencies.

At the same time, the altcoin season index has climbed above 80.

This suggests that many investors are now shifting away from Bitcoin, with altcoin prices likely to rise as capital rotation takes effect.

However, opinions remain divided on Bitcoin price prediction, with many arguing where the flagship crypto will head when the next bear market arrives. One analyst has even predicted that BTC price could correct by as much as 70%.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Predicts 70% Correction

In an interview published on Thursday, the founder of the Quantitative Market Analytics platform Into the Cryptoverse, Benjamin Cowen, said he expects Bitcoin to face a major correction.

His Bitcoin price prediction suggested there could be a drawdown of about 70% from whatever the next cycle top or all-time high turns out to be.

His view, he explained, comes from past market cycles. Previous bear markets saw Bitcoin price drop by 94%, 87%, and around 77%.

According to Cowen, a sharp Bitcoin correction is not guaranteed. He explained that it does not necessarily have to happen, but history shows that investors should be prepared for the possibility of it repeating.

In case of a 70% correction from the current all-time high of $124,457, BTC price bottom would be around $37,337.

However, if the cycle top reaches $250,000, the bottom would likely fall near $75,000. If the peak goes as high as $500,000, then a 70% correction would place the bottom close to $150,000.

Meanwhile, Cowen noted that these figures are not predictions but possible outcomes based on how past market cycles have played out.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin Price?

According to the DeFi Report by Michael Nadeau, long-term holders began their main distribution phase between November 2020 and March 2021.

During this time, they reduced their supply by about 13.5%. This occurred just before Bitcoin price hit its peak in April 2021.

Nadeau explained that this moment should be seen as the “true” top of the cycle

The Bitcoin from long-term holders moved to short-term holders, thus adding new liquidity to the market.

However, long-term holders soon began buying back. By the end of the year, they had built up even larger positions than before.

Because of this, the second Bitcoin USD price peak in November 2021 was much weaker. It did not benefit from fresh capital and was instead driven by the repositioning of coins already in circulation.

According to Nadeau, a similar setup is unfolding in the current cycle. Long-term holders reduced their supply by about 12.4% during what may have been the first “true” top in the first quarter of 2025.

Since then, they have started re-accumulating once again, a pattern that closely mirrors the phase that followed Bitcoin’s April 2021 peak.

Can BTC Price Hit $150k This Cycle?

BTC price today traded near $117k during writing, recording marginal declines in the last 24 hours. Notably, the crypto has hovered between $116,695 and $117,911 in the last 24 hours.

Amid this, an earlier analysis dated September 5 by Mr of WallStreet indicates his theory on Bitcoin price prediction for the coming months. Besides, he outlines what he believes to be a possible roadmap for the rest of the bull market for Bitcoin USD and the start of the next bear market.

He explained that the short-term MVRV shows retail investors are going through maximum pain and capitulation. This same level has appeared four times in the current bull market.

The first was Bitcoin USD at $16,000 at the start of the rally. The second was at $49,000 during the yen carry trade unwind.

Meanwhile, the third came at $74,000 during the tariff crash. The fourth is now at $107,000, with many voices in the market calling for a cycle top.

According to him, this suggests that the bottom is either already in place or very close to $107,000.

The expert analyst highlighted that the market has entered the final euphoric stage of the bull run. He explained that it is preparing for one last major upward move before the cycle comes to an end.

His initial target for the cycle top is between $140,000 and $150,000 for Bitcoin price. In that range, he plans to seriously consider exiting all of his Bitcoin USD positions.