Looking ahead to the next decade: Ethereum still has room for 100-fold growth

By Joe Zhou, Foresight News

Today marks Ethereum's tenth anniversary.

Over the past decade, Ethereum has become the asset with the highest return on investment globally, perhaps unmatched.

Over the past decade, Nvidia's market capitalization has increased 150-fold, Bitcoin's 300-fold, and Ethereum's 3,600-fold, reaching $450 billion. In just ten years, Ethereum has become one of the world's top 30 assets by market capitalization.

Over the past decade, Ethereum has become one of the most secure financial systems in the world.

Over the past decade, trillions of dollars have flowed through Ethereum, with annual trading volume of stablecoins alone reaching $20 trillion. In addition to stablecoins, Ethereum also hosts decentralized exchanges (with daily trading volumes reaching tens of billions of dollars), staking systems (involving tens of billions of dollars), lending protocols (multiple billion dollars), derivatives (multiple billion dollars in daily trading volume), NFTs, and more. The Ethereum mainnet itself has not experienced a single outage, crash, or theft.

Looking back over the past decade, the Ethereum ecosystem has spawned at least three groundbreaking products. Just like Apple launched the Mac, iPhone, AirPods, and iPad, Ethereum has been the undisputed market leader.

Stablecoins have an annual transaction volume of $28 trillion, with over 70% of that volume occurring on Ethereum. In 2016, the world's first DAO was launched on Ethereum, and today, over 90% of the world's largest DAOs by TVL (total value locked) are located within the Ethereum ecosystem. During the DeFi summer of 2020, Ethereum was the sole hub, with a market share of 95%-99%. In 2021, NFTs saw their first major breakthrough, with Ethereum as the primary battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual transaction volume... Meanwhile, the tokenization of US stocks and bonds, Reliable Transaction Authorization (RWA), and the AI Agent meme are all just beginning.

What about the next ten years? Ethereum is already a top-30 asset by market capitalization, surpassing renowned companies like Meta, TSMC, Visa, and Mastercard. Is this the end?

No, perhaps this is the true beginning.

Just like when the Apple Mac surpassed 10 million users in 1987, that wasn't the end, but the beginning of everything.

Today, Ethereum, with only approximately 10 million monthly users, has officially entered its next decade.

Ethereum still has room for 100-fold growth

1. Even if Ethereum's TVL increases 100-fold, it will still only account for 2% of global financial assets.

2. Even if Ethereum's user base increases 100-fold, it will only reach 1 billion. Visa and Mastercard, on the other hand, have both issued over 3 billion cards.

3. Ethereum, like the Apple computer in 1987, remains a niche destination for enthusiasts. In 1987, Mac sales exceeded 10 million units; by 2025, Ethereum, the world's shared computer, will only be used by approximately 10 million people per month (17 million addresses per week).

4. Ethereum, a decade-long, honed financial system, already sees trillions of dollars in capital flow through it. Among them, the annual transaction volume of stablecoins on Ethereum alone reaches $20 trillion.

5. The miracle of stablecoins is expected to be replicated across various "product lines" on Ethereum.

The market capitalization of stablecoins was $1 million in 2016, reaching $1 billion in 2018 and $100 billion in 2021. 1,000-fold growth in two years, 100-fold growth in four years. The miracle of stablecoins (tokenized US dollars) could also happen with the tokenization of US Treasury bonds and US stocks.

6. Ethereum is providing alternatives to all mainstream financial products. It can do what financial companies can do, and it can also do what financial companies cannot do.

7. Ethereum is tokenizing nearly all mainstream financial products.

Ethereum is tokenizing the US dollar (US dollar stablecoin), a $40 trillion market currently reaching $300 billion. Ethereum is tokenizing US Treasury bonds, a $36 trillion market currently reaching $7 billion. Ethereum is tokenizing US stocks, a $60 trillion market that is just getting started and currently reaching $500 million... These could all explode suddenly within a few years, growing a hundredfold annually, just like the explosion of the US dollar stablecoin market.

8. As a new global financial system, Ethereum has at least 100-fold potential for financial market growth. Ethereum's TVL is only $80 billion. The global financial system's assets total $400 trillion. Even if Ethereum grows 100-fold, it will only account for 2% of global financial assets.

9. Ethereum isn't a "replacement" for the global financial system; it's redefining finance. Just like the relationship between email and the postal service. The postal service was once the world's primary mode of communication, but today, email handles more messages per day than the postal service does in a year.

10 or 20 years ago, no one believed that over 90% of human information would be transmitted online. Today, few believe that 9% of human capital will flow through Ethereum in the future.

Ethereum, waiting for every financial system collapse

1. Every crisis in the global financial system is an opportunity for Ethereum.

2. Ethereum awaits every collapse of the mainstream financial system. These kinds of collapses, both large and small, occur almost every month, every year, and every cycle.

3. Economic crises, pandemics, wars, political unrest, national bankruptcies, currency devaluations, geopolitical conflicts... In each of the 195 countries around the world, a major upheaval represents the collapse of a specific part or segment of the global financial system.

4. Over the past 100 years, the world has experienced at least 10 major financial crises; 8 major pandemics with global impact and mass deaths; and over 30 national bankruptcies, including 10 cases of currency collapse combined with hyperinflation. In the past 50 years, there have been approximately 15 to 20 major wars of international significance. These events will bring about structural changes to the financial system and create new market demand for Ethereum.

5. Ethereum is the center of "marginal finance." Approximately 10 countries have been excluded from the mainstream financial system, and as many as 30 to 50 countries have been marginalized. Ordinary people need to use stable currencies, businesses need to trade across borders, and the middle class needs to buy high-quality stocks.

The mainstream financial system bans them, but Ethereum embraces them.

6. Duan Yongping repeatedly emphasizes: Do the right thing, and do it right. Ethereum continues to do what centralized institutions—countries, financial institutions, internet companies, and others—cannot. Doing decentralized things is doing the right thing.

7. Ethereum is undermining Swift. Ethereum has become the world's largest value network after Swift. Ethereum significantly surpasses Swift in many key dimensions, including but not limited to: network neutrality, 24/7 availability, transaction fees, cross-border transaction speed, transparency, and automated asset settlement. As major countries like the United States begin to embrace Ethereum in terms of compliance and regulation, in 30 years, Ethereum has the potential to replace Swift as the world's largest value network.

8. Swift has sanctioned and restricted nearly 20 countries. Ethereum is permissionless; any country and individual can trade on it.

9. Athens and Sparta, Android and Apple, Ethereum and the global financial system... they are two sides of the same coin, each lacking a flaw.

10. Ethereum's success is highly probable. The mainstream financial system won't collapse suddenly, but it will continue to collapse. Each collapse benefits the new financial system, benefits Ethereum, and may be an opportunity for Ethereum's rapid expansion.

Ethereum's Moats

1. Ethereum's Moats. 1. Neutrality. It and Bitcoin are the only blockchains sufficiently decentralized, beyond the control of any single country or organization. 2. Security. The mainnet has been running for ten years, with a market capitalization of $450 billion, and has never experienced a major outage, downtime, or theft. 3. Unique Culture. DAO governance, airdrops for early users, transparent transactions, a strong focus on ZK technology and privacy protection... The Ethereum ecosystem has fostered a strong culture, and a strong culture gives rise to a strong business model.

2. On July 30, 2015, the Ethereum mainnet officially launched. Over the past decade, the Ethereum mainnet has not experienced a single outage, crash, or theft.

3. Ethereum is a public good. Air can be polluted, water can be prohibited, land can be expropriated, road access can be denied, internet accounts can be blocked... Aside from a few things beyond human control, like the sun and the moon, there were no truly universally accessible public goods until the emergence of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

4. Ethereum requires no permission to use. Bitcoin is a currency shared by all humanity, while Ethereum is a supercomputer shared by all humanity. Anyone can deploy, run, verify, and use programs on the Ethereum network, without relying on traditional servers or companies.

5. Ethereum is a decentralized financial system, a public good, digital oil, a supercomputer shared by all humanity, an immutable global ledger, the world's largest value network after Swift, a decentralized internet, and a cyber nation.

6. Ethereum is the absolute leader in the crypto world. In 2024, stablecoin annual trading volume reached $28 trillion, with 70% of transactions occurring within the Ethereum ecosystem. In 2021, as NFTs broke out, Ethereum was the primary battleground, accounting for over 90% of annual trading volume. During the DeFi summer of 2020, Ethereum was the sole hub, with a market share of 95%-99%. Almost all decentralized financial activities, including lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols, were run on it.

7. Ethereum is the biggest challenger to the global financial system. It provides a financial system that allows for fair and secure transactions without regulation. When a country is once again excluded from the mainstream financial system, Ethereum is one of the best solutions. When businesses and merchants want to conduct normal cross-border transactions but are unable to do so for various reasons, Ethereum provides a new financial system. When individuals cannot conveniently trade stocks or real estate in other countries, Ethereum provides a regulatory-free financial system.

8. Ethereum is the source of innovation in the crypto industry and the center of nearly all large-scale blockchain applications. During the DeFi summer of 2020, Ethereum was the sole hub, with a market share of 95%-99%. Almost all lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols operated on it. In 2021, as NFTs broke through the mainstream, Ethereum became the primary battleground, accounting for over 90% of annual trading volume. By 2025, stablecoins will have reached a breakout market, with global stablecoin trading reaching $28 trillion annually, with over 70% of that volume occurring on Ethereum.

9. Competition ultimately comes down to time and who makes the fewest mistakes. And Ethereum consistently makes the fewest mistakes.

Ethereum's mainnet has been running for ten years without a single major outage or downtime. Solana, which launched in 2020, has experienced over ten major outages in five years, an average of one to three per year, with multiple network restarts. Sui, which launched in 2023, has experienced two outages in two years.

10. The AI industry can't exist without Nvidia; the mobile phone industry can't exist without Apple; the cryptocurrency industry can't exist without Ethereum.

Surpassing BTC is not impossible

1. Bitcoin is just a monetary system. Ethereum is not only a monetary system, but also a financial system, an internet system, and a supercomputer shared by all of humanity.

2. Those who believe that Ethereum's value will surpass Bitcoin have never disappeared. Entrepreneur Mark Cuban (2021), Real Vision CEO Raoul (2023), and 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino (May 2025) have all publicly and clearly expressed this view at different times and in different places.

3. Cathie Wood is considered one of the most optimistic figures about Ethereum's future prospects. She believes that by 2032, Ethereum's price could reach $166,000, with a market capitalization of $20 trillion. Ethereum's current market capitalization has reached $440 billion, meaning Cathie Wood believes it has nearly 50 times more room to grow.

4. Ethereum is as scarce as Bitcoin. Ethereum's current inflation rate is lower than major currencies like BTC, gold, the US dollar, and the euro.

In 2024, Ethereum's inflation rate will be -0.2% to 0.5%, compared to BTC's 1.7% (which will drop to 0.85% after the 2028 halving, decreasing every four years), gold's 1.5% (gold's supply increases by approximately 1.5%-2% annually), the euro's 2.5%, and the US dollar's 3.3%.

Some currencies have exorbitant inflation rates: the Egyptian pound (28%), the Iranian rial (31%), the Turkish lira (58%), the Argentinean (250%), and the Zimbabwean (560%).

5. As Bitcoin enters its first decade, it will reach $3,500. In Ethereum's first decade, it reached $3,800. Bitcoin's first decade saw a market capitalization of $62 billion; Ethereum's first decade saw a market capitalization of $460 billion. 6. Ethereum was on the verge of surpassing Bitcoin's market capitalization. In mid-2017, Ethereum's market capitalization even reached 80% of Bitcoin's; in mid-May 2021, it even reached 48% of Bitcoin's. Currently, Ethereum only holds 20% of Bitcoin's market capitalization. 7. Without Bitcoin, the crypto industry still has a purpose; without Ethereum, the crypto industry loses its purpose. 8. From August 2015 to January 2016, the price of Ethereum remained below $0.30. Today, Ethereum is worth $3,900, an increase of over 13,000 times. During this same period, BTC's value increased by several hundred times.

9. Ethereum has two price growth engines: the US Ethereum spot ETF and the Ethereum Strategic Reserve. Expected to launch in October of this year, Ethereum will also launch a third growth engine: staking support for the Ethereum spot ETF. Once launched, ETH holders who participate in staking will receive an additional annual return of approximately 3%.

10. In the next decade, when Ethereum becomes as ubiquitous as the internet, the number of Ethereum users will increase 100-fold, and the amount of funds on Ethereum (TVL) will increase 100-fold.