AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Falls 14% as Launch Failure Deepens Race Against Starlink

TLDR

• AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite was placed into a too-low orbit by Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket and will be de-orbited
• ASTS stock dropped around 14% in premarket trading Monday
• The satellite’s cost is expected to be covered by insurance, but the time loss is the real hit
• AST still needs 45–60 satellites operational for commercial service; it currently has just six in orbit
• Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello has a Sell rating on ASTS with a $41.20 price target, implying ~52% further downside

AST SpaceMobile hit a wall Sunday when its BlueBird 7 satellite ended up in the wrong orbit after launch. The culprit: Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket.

The satellite powered on after separating from the rocket, but it was placed too low to sustain operations using its onboard thrusters. AST confirmed the satellite will be de-orbited — essentially allowed to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere.

The company said the cost of the satellite is expected to be recovered through its insurance policy. So financially, the direct hit may be limited. But time is a different story.

ASTS stock fell roughly 14% in premarket trading Monday, sitting around $73.96.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

AST is in a race to build out a satellite constellation capable of delivering 5G-quality connectivity from space. To offer commercial service in northern latitudes, it needs between 45 and 60 satellites operational. Right now, it has six.

The company says it still targets around 45 satellites in orbit by end of 2026. Sunday’s failure doesn’t help that timeline.

Competitive Pressure Mounting

This setback lands at a tough moment. SpaceX’s Starlink has already launched over a thousand satellites in 2026 alone, and its fixed broadband base has reached around 10 million users. Starlink has also been signing carrier deals across Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania — regions where AST had previously signed early agreements.

Amazon is also entering the direct-to-device market. Its recently announced acquisition of Globalstar puts another well-funded rival in the mix, targeting the same space AST is building toward, from 2028.

Blue Origin, which is trying to establish itself as a credible alternative in the commercial launch market, also takes a hit from this. It relies on reusable rockets to compete with SpaceX’s launch dominance.

What Analysts Are Saying

Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello — ranked in the top 1% of Wall Street analysts — was already cautious on ASTS before Sunday’s news. He carries an Underperform rating and a $41.20 price target, which would represent about a 52% drop from Friday’s close.

The broader analyst community isn’t rushing in either. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, four recommend buying, five are neutral, and two rate it a Sell. The average price target sits at $91.03, implying about 6% upside from Friday’s close.

AST SpaceMobile currently has six satellites in orbit and needs the constellation to grow significantly before it can begin generating meaningful commercial revenue.

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