Political violence possible if Duterte removed — GeoQuant

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter and Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter

THE IMPEACHMENT proceedings against Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio have raised the possibility of further instability and political violence in the country, according to an assessment by a unit of Fitch Solutions.

“Public impeachment hearings against VP Sara Duterte have sharply increased Social Polarization and Government Risks by intensifying the Marcos-Duterte power struggle, with the potential for further instability and political violence if she is removed from contention for the 2028 presidency,” GeoQuant said in a report released on Tuesday.

The Senate on Monday convened as an impeachment court for the trial of Ms. Duterte who faces charges of corruption, misuse of public funds, betrayal of public trust, and an alleged plot to assassinate President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.

Ms. Duterte’s trial is expected to start by the first week of June.

GeoQuant noted that social polarization risk and government risk began to increase when the House Committee on Justice began hearings on the impeachment complaint against Ms. Duterte on March 25.

“The case pits two of the country’s most powerful political families against one another, Marcos and Duterte, who ran as a team in the 2022 general elections but have fallen out over differing constituency and policy agendas,” it said.

“With Marcos’ tenure up in May 2028, Duterte is his likely successor, but impeachment would prohibit her from running. Marcos claims not to be behind the investigation, but his allies control the House of Representatives and her removal from the field of potential candidates would allow Marcos to find an ally as successor.”

If convicted, Ms. Duterte would be barred from running for public office.

“Expect both Government and Social Polarization Risks to continue to rise as long as the process continues, with the potential for political violence rising [if] Duterte is sidelined,” GeoQuant said.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, said political polarization ratings typically rise when rival political camps become sharply divided, and businesses begin seeing risks to operational continuity.

“It’s bad for business because usually, shifts in regimes or non-peaceful transitions mean business continuity is compromised or insurances/preparations kick in, which impact operational costs,” he said via Facebook Messenger, adding that firms often face higher insurance and contingency costs during periods of instability.

Mr. Juliano noted the recent turmoil in the Senate likely contributed to concerns flagged by GeoQuant, pointing to leadership upheavals and controversy surrounding efforts to shield Senator Ronald “Bato” M. dela Rosa from accountability.

Mr. Juliano said the unfolding events bear similarities to the political tensions that preceded the impeachment trial of former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada and the subsequent EDSA Dos and Tres (EDSA II and III) protests.

“Whether it ends the same, we have yet to see,” he said. “But it looks unstable nonetheless.”

POLITICAL CIRCUS
Meanwhile, businesses are hoping for an end to the political turmoil hounding the Senate, saying stability is needed to help firms thrive and support faster economic growth, according to Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Business Advisory Council Chairman Jose Ma. “Joey” A. Concepcion III.

“The Philippines has to continue to get its GDP (gross domestic product) going higher,” he told BusinessWorld on the sidelines of the BusinessWorld Economic Forum on Monday.

“For that to happen, the business sector must be doing well. Hopefully our legislators will support this and that the circus happening there will end,” he added.

Mr. Concepcion said that as the Philippines is the chair of the ASEAN this year, there is a responsibility to present the country favorably to foreign investors.

“We have to be able to present a more pleasant picture to our foreign investors. It is very important because Philippines hosting the ASEAN only happens once every 10 to 12 years,” he said.

“So, we are putting every effort, especially from the private sector, to ensure that many investors, business owners from all over the world, will come to the Philippines,” he added.

Mr. Concepcion said the goal is to show that the Philippines is open for business.

“We need Congress and our legislators to bring things back to normal from their point,” he said. “We hope they will be able to really help create an open economy.”

“If you look at very successful countries in ASEAN, they are very focused and they are always straight to the point,” he added.

Aside from political uncertainty, Mr. Concepcion said businesses are also dealing with the impact of the Middle East conflict.

“But let us remain optimistic. One good sign is that it comes when we are the host of ASEAN and when all the leaders come here, the rest of the world will see what the Philippines is all about,” he added.