John M. Chu’s blockbuster sequel Wicked: For Good is shattering box office records with a magical $225 million opening weekend. Read my review here.
Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo star in “Wicked: For Good.”
Source: Universal, photo by Giles Keyte
Wicked: For Good By The Numbers
As I mentioned in my review of Wicked: For Good, this second chapter in the reimagining of The Wizard of Oz has set new box office records for North American and worldwide openings for a Broadway adaptation. Wicked: For Good also has the second-biggest domestic debut of 2025, behind only A Minecraft Movie’s $162.7 million.
Outside of simply Broadway, Wicked: For Good’s freshman weekend is also a new record for any type of musical released in November. For Universal, Wicked: For Good is especially important as the studio’s second-biggest domestic opening weekend of all time, behind only Jurassic World a decade ago.
The strong positive word of mouth from audiences, with an A-grade at Cinemascore and high “recommends” on top of 70% Rotten Tomatoes critical score and a whopping 95% score from verified audiences.
That suggests at minimum a 3-3.5x final multiplier, already setting Wicked: For Good on a journey that leads to at least $675-785 million final cume, and more likely north of $800 million as a moderate final estimate.
However, the first Wicked saw more than a 4.3x final multiplier, so if For Good can reach 4x then we would see a total approaching $900+ million. And we will have a good idea of whether that figure or something even higher is in the cards or not, after we see the weekday numbers and whether next weekend’s long Thanksgiving holiday delivers the goods.
Last year, the first Wicked enjoyed a nice holiday boost that sent it north of its North American debut sales. I expect Wicked: For Good to cast a similar spell over Thanksgiving moviegoers and fans, enough to push the film toward $500 million and put a $900 million outcome in its sights.
But if Wicked: For Good should see larger weekday turnout, and if the international numbers continue apace, then the film might make a run at $550 million through Thanksgiving weekend, and should it get even in the vicinity of $600 million then $1 billion is definitely on the table.
As expected, the rest of the box office is slim pickings, with Now You See Me: Now You Don’t looking at a big drop-off after a better-than-expected opening last weekend, falling to less than $10 million domestic this frame. Predator: Badlands, meanwhile, is winding down and will do perhaps $5 million (give or take).
The biggest surprise to me, and among the bigger disappointments of the year in terms of box office, is the excellent Stephen King adaptation of The Running Man starring Glen Powell. It’s crashing in its second weekend, and at this point looks like it might struggle to reach $50 million. Hopefully it earns an audience on home entertainment, because it certainly deserves to be seen more widely.
Looking ahead, Thanksgiving sees the arrival of Disney’s Zootopia 2, and while it will certainly pull down huge numbers and eat into Wicked: For Good’s target demographics, we’ve seen ample proof that there’s more than enough good audience will and dollars to go around when two big beloved films are available, especially if there’s little else competing.
Wicked: For Good is well positioned and even if it winds up more front loaded than expected, it will still be a blockbuster hit at this point and most likely will match or exceed the performance of the first chapter. By how much remains to be seen, but for now the franchise can afford to sit back and enjoy defying box office gravity once again.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2025/11/23/wicked-for-good-shatters-records-with-magical-225-million-box-office/
