Why 2025 ‘Bearish’ Signal Points to a Bottom, Not a Collapse?

Bitcoin doesn’t need a fanfare when chart signals turn. The latest sell-off, as of November 2025, pushed the Bitcoin price down over 30% from its record high, trading near $86,000 at the time of writing.

In fact, Bitcoin has erased all 2025 gains, stoking talk of a deeper collapse of the BTC price and the broader crypto market.

But look closer at the data, and the “Death Cross” technical pattern (when the 50-day moving average slides below the 200-day) hasn’t spelled disaster for long-term bulls.

If anything, it’s a bottom signal for the Bitcoin price more often than a top. As crypto commentator ‘Ash Crypto’r points out, each time this ominous cross has appeared during an upward-sloping 200-SMA, Bitcoin rebounded fiercely, contradicting trader panic and confirming contrarian instincts.

Bitcoin Price: Unpacking the Recent Death Cross

The term “Death Cross” haunts traditional finance and crypto Twitter alike. In technical analysis, it signals the start of a protracted downtrend. But history with Bitcoin price is different.

Since 2023, every death cross within a bullish 200-SMA marked a local trough. In September 2023, the Bitcoin price bottomed near $26,900.

By August 2024, unwinding Japanese carry trades sent it to approximately $59,900, and tariff volatility in April 2025 marked a bottom just under $79,000.

Today, Bitcoin’s mid-November slide tracked textbook technical progression. The cross formed, panic seized the market, and Bitcoin lurched toward critical oversold zones.

That same 50/200-day crossover, now underway, comes on the heels of a sharper drop, over 30% from October highs.

But unlike April’s deep correction, this one appears less severe and is progressing faster, with the market spending half as long trending lower before forming its floor.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told CNBC that he believed the bottom for the Bitcoin price was almost in.

While he conceded that the BTC price could go down to $70,000, institutional buyers keep accumulating, showing the long-term trend is up.

Endowments and sovereign funds like Harvard, Abu Dhabi, and others are buying the dip as retail holders panic and “tourists” get washed out.

Metrics such as long-term wallet growth, steady ETF creations, and deep-pocketed buyers waiting for technical exhaustion before scooping up supply at discounted rates all point to a Bitcoin price nearing the bottom.

Technical levels matter as well. $92,000-$94,000, now flipped to resistance, had been a key Fibonacci zone since May.

The next cluster looms at $74,000-$76,000. The consensus: only if $80,000 fails might a true downtrend in the Bitcoin price be confirmed.

Macro, Mindset, and Reversal Scenarios

At the surface level, the current correction fits the script of Bitcoin bear markets: swift, brutal, but rarely terminal.

The routine—Death Cross → Panic → Bottom → Rally—has played out several times before. The difference now?

Macro headwinds (Fed policy, outflow spikes) are heavier, but not structurally bearish for crypto assets, should liquidity loosen up in the coming quarters.

Institutional accumulators see opportunity as fear overtakes retail. On-chain signals show acceleration in “smart money” inflow (the types driven by strategic asset rotation, rather than short-term trading).

A reversal from ETF outflows, a monetary policy pivot, or even sideways consolidation could catalyze a multi-month recovery, with technical targets circling $100,000–$110,000.

The key question for traders is not whether another rout is imminent, but whether the bottoming structure will again lead the Bitcoin price out of its November doldrums.

What Happens Next for Bitcoin Price?

Should support at $80,000 hold, Bitcoin will again prove that death crosses mean temporary pain, not lasting doom.

History and structure suggest that panic is the last ingredient needed for a bottom; rallies, not collapses, tend to follow.

As Hougan concedes, it’s uncomfortable, but discomfort is often the entry point for the next trend.

Those who fade the crowd have data on their side: 75% of the time, the Death Cross is a buy signal, not a sell-off warning, especially in an up-trending market. He said:

As long-term holders step in and retail capitulates, the stage is set for the next act in the Bitcoin price. You might want to get the popcorn ready.