Why Wolfe Research Says Bitcoin is in Maximum Disagreement

Wolfe Research analysts highlight a rare moment of “maximum disagreement” in the crypto market, as sentiment splits between those calling a bear market bottom and others expecting further declines. Bitcoin remains above $90,000, while major digital assets have dropped 20-50% in just three months.

This stark divide in sentiment has historically preceded significant price reversals, according to the firm. Wolfe Research’s team has identified emerging technical and momentum signals that could determine Bitcoin’s direction through year-end.

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Market Split Creates Historical Setup

Rob Ginsberg and Read Harvey, analysts at Wolfe Research, describe today’s crypto market as sharply divided.

Half of the participants believe that the bear phase is only beginning, while the remainder see a bottom already in place.

This extreme split, which the firm refers to as “maximum disagreement,” has historically preceded significant turning points.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent pop above $90,000, broader markets remain under stress. Nearly every major cryptocurrency has fallen 20% to 50% over the last three months, indicating risk appetite remains low. Investment flows have also stayed weak, limiting enthusiasm beyond daily price action.

Wolfe Research positions itself neutrally, noting an imminent opportunity for investors. The firm still expects that Bitcoin could bottom near $75,000, even as current prices trade substantially higher. This would mean a further 23% decline if their scenario pans out.

Long-term support zones in the crypto market strengthen this analysis. These technical areas have often marked previous cycle lows and major turning points, serving as a guide to current price behavior.

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ETF Flows Signal Institutional Hesitation

One key indicator of sentiment is found in crypto ETF (exchange-traded fund) flows. Bitcoin ETF inflows remain weak, making it difficult for the asset to sustain rallies above $90,000.

Institutional investment, once strong at the year’s start when spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, has notably cooled.

Recent ETF flow data shows that November and December saw significant outflows from major Bitcoin ETF products. These trends suggest large investors are either reducing exposure or waiting for clearer signals before committing additional capital.

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Trading momentum has not returned alongside Bitcoin’s price recovery. The mix of sluggish ETF flows and broad digital asset declines creates a tough environment for a sustained rally. Retail investors also remain divided, echoing the institutional uncertainty.

Technical Indicators Show Emerging Momentum

Momentum indicators are beginning to improve, despite broader caution. Daily MACD readings suggest positive momentum may be building. Yet, analysts caution it is uncertain whether this upturn signals a full recovery or just a short respite.

Bitcoin is approaching two significant technical levels. The 50-day moving average, around $98,165, is the first challenge. Above that, the key psychological barrier of $100,000 stands as a level that has been hard to reclaim and hold.

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Wolfe Research views the recent short-term bounce as constructive. Their analysis notes crypto assets, relative to equities, have returned to previously supportive zones seen at past turning points. This adds more context to the technical backdrop.

Altogether, these factors paint a complex environment. Stiff technical resistance, weak institutional flows, and asset declines compete with improving momentum and historical support zones. This mix shapes the evolving narrative for Bitcoin and digital assets.

Contrasting Views Define Market Outlook

On social media as well as among analysts, market sentiment is sharply divided. Some observers are strongly skeptical about current Bitcoin levels, arguing these values are unsustainable and citing market mechanics like stablecoin issuance as proof.

Others believe the correction has ended, referencing the same technical supports Wolfe Research points to. This group views current prices as opportunities ahead of an eventual recovery. The debate reflects uncertainty around factors like macroeconomic trends, regulation, and institutional adoption

The coming weeks may reveal which view proves correct. If Bitcoin can break and hold above $100,000, the bulls may gain the upper hand. However, a drop below $90,000 could reignite selling. Wolfe’s “maximum disagreement” signal could resolve soon, potentially sparking the kind of reversal seen in previous cycles.