Bitcoin “Bear Thesis” Stays In Play With Fresh $93,500 Rejection

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped from the 2025 yearly open into Thursday’s Wall Street trading session as markets reacted to US jobs data.

Key points:

Strong US labor-market data fails to dent hopes of a December Fed rate cut.
Crypto continues to diverge from stocks amid predictions of a strong finish to 2025 for the latter.
Bitcoin has multiple key resistance levels to reclaim in order to flip the bearish status quo.

Fed has “no option” over rate cut

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action weakening on surprisingly low US jobless claims.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both initial and ongoing claims came in below expectations on the day, per data from the St. Louis Fed.

US weekly initial jobless claims through Nov. 29. Source: St. Louis Fed

Despite this signal of labor market strengthening, and hence economic resilience, markets doubled down on expectations that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates at its Dec. 10 meeting.

The reason, analysis argued, was a widening gap between risk assets and consumer strength.

“The Fed has no option: Even as inflation hits 3%, the Fed MUST cut rates to ‘save’ US consumers,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in its latest commentary on X.

Fed target rate probabilities for Dec. 10 meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

A cut would notionally support further liquidity inflows into crypto and risk assets. As Cointelegraph reported, even the risk of Japan hiking rates in the near future represented a contradictory move, as its central bank finalized a $135 billion economic stimulus injection.

Kobeissi described the Japanese situation as a “free-for-all.”

“Japan is printing stimulus, yet raising rates? Something is broken,” it summarized alongside a print of record-high 30-year bonds.

Japan 30-year bond chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Continuing, trading outfit Mosaic Asset Company nonetheless warned that future Fed rate cuts were far from guaranteed despite market optimism.

“While market-implied odds point to an 89% chance of a third consecutive rate cut, deep divisions are emerging on the forward path of interest rates,” it wrote in a blog post on the day.

Analysis: Bitcoin bear case “remains strong”

With the S&P 500 just 0.5% off new all-time highs, Bitcoin and altcoins continued to stand out as weak players.

Related: Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?

Among traders, multiple resistance levels that need to be reclaimed lie on the horizon.

Along with the $93,500 yearly open, points of interest included liquidity closer to $100,000, as well as the 50-week simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.

“Looking for a retest at the 50-Week SMA, but need to clear resistance in the $96k – $98k range first,” trading resource Material Indicators told X followers alongside a chart of Binance order-book liquidity data.

BTC/USDT order-book liquidity data with whale transactions. Source: Material Indicators/X

In a subsequent post, Material Indicators said that Bitcoin failing to flip the yearly open so far was an “indication that the bear thesis remains strong.”

Cointelegraph reported earlier on various BTC price indicators seeking to draw a line under the market’s latest bearish phase.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-rejects-key-93-5k-fed-rate-cut-ignore-strong-jobs-data?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

Highlights: US prosecutors requested a 12-year prison sentence for Do Kwon after the Terra collapse. Terraform’s $40 billion downfall caused huge losses and sparked a long downturn in crypto markets. Do Kwon will face sentencing on December 11 and must give up $19 million in earnings. US prosecutors have asked a judge to give Do Kwon, Terraform Labs co-founder, a 12-year prison sentence for his role in the remarkable $40 billion collapse of the Terra and Luna tokens. The request also seeks to finalize taking away Kwon’s criminal earnings. The court filing came in New York’s Southern District on Thursday. This is about four months after Kwon admitted guilt on two charges: wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud. Prosecutors said Kwon caused more losses than Samuel Bankman-Fried, Alexander Mashinsky, and Karl Sebastian Greenwood combined. U.S. prosecutors have asked a New York federal judge to sentence Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon to 12 years in prison, calling his role in the 2022 TerraUSD collapse a “colossal” fraud that triggered broader crypto-market failures, including the downfall of FTX. Sentencing is… — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 5, 2025 Terraform Collapse Shakes Crypto Market Authorities explained that Terraform’s collapse affected the entire crypto market. They said it helped trigger what is now called the ‘Crypto Winter.’ The filing stressed that Kwon’s conduct harmed many investors and the broader crypto world. On Thursday, prosecutors said Kwon must give up just over $19 million. They added that they will not ask for any additional restitution. They said: “The cost and time associated with calculating each investor-victim’s loss, determining whether the victim has already been compensated through the pending bankruptcy, and then paying out a percentage of the victim’s losses, will delay payment and diminish the amount of money ultimately paid to victims.” Authorities will sentence Do Kwon on December 11. They charged him in March 2023 with multiple crimes, including securities fraud, market manipulation, money laundering, and wire fraud. All connections are tied to his role at Terraform. After Terra fell in 2022, authorities lost track of Kwon until they arrested him in Montenegro on unrelated charges and sent him to the U.S. Do Kwon’s Legal Case and Sentencing In April last year, a jury ruled that both Terraform and Kwon committed civil fraud. They found the company and its co-founder misled investors about how the business operated and its finances. Jay Clayton, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, submitted the sentencing request in November. TERRA STATEMENT: “We are very disappointed with the verdict, which we do not believe is supported by the evidence. We continue to maintain that the SEC does not have the legal authority to bring this case at all, and we are carefully weighing our options and next steps.” — Zack Guzmán (@zGuz) April 5, 2024 The news of Kwon’s sentencing caused Terraform’s token, LUNA, to jump over 40% in one day, from $0.07 to $0.10. Still, this rise remains small compared to its all-time high of more than $19, which the ecosystem reached before collapsing in May 2022. In a November court filing, Do Kwon’s lawyers asked for a maximum five-year sentence. They argued for a shorter term partly because he could face up to 40 years in prison in South Korea, where prosecutors are also pursuing a case against him. The legal team added that even if Kwon serves time in the U.S., he would not be released freely. He would be moved from prison to an immigration detention center and then sent to Seoul to face pretrial detention for his South Korea charges. eToro Platform Best Crypto Exchange Over 90 top cryptos to trade Regulated by top-tier entities User-friendly trading app 30+ million users 9.9 Visit eToro eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment, and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.