4 key levels to watch next week

Price action on SOL is testing a key inflection area, with Solana crypto stabilizing around $138 after a pullback while the broader structure remains under pressure.

Daily chart (D1): main bias – cautiously bearish, attempting to base

The dominant scenario on the daily is still bearish, even though price is trying to stabilize.

Trend structure and EMAs

– Price: $138.09
– EMA 20: $138.09
– EMA 50: $152.51
– EMA 200: $173.23

Price has slipped well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, and is only now sitting right on the 20-day EMA. That is a textbook damaged uptrend: the fast EMA (20) is acting as a short-term balance point, while the 50 and 200 above are now overhead supply zones.

What it implies: crypto Solana is no longer in a clean bull trend. The best you can call it is a corrective phase within a larger uptrend. As long as price stays below roughly $150–155 (the 50-day area), rallies are structurally suspect and can be sold into by medium-term traders.

RSI (momentum) about crypto Solana

– RSI 14 (D1): 47.13

Daily RSI is sitting just below the midline, neither oversold nor overbought.

What it implies: Momentum has cooled off but has not flushed. Bears do not have a momentum stranglehold, but bulls have clearly lost the initiative. This is typical for a consolidation after a drop: the market is waiting for a catalyst.

MACD (trend momentum)

– MACD line: -4.46
– Signal: -6.12
– Histogram: +1.66

Both MACD line and signal are under zero, confirming the broader down-momentum from recent weeks. However, the line is now above the signal and the histogram has flipped positive.

What it implies: The dominant trend has been down, but the downside impulse is fading. You are seeing the early stages of a potential daily momentum crossover in favor of bulls, not a confirmed trend reversal. That often precedes either a bottoming process or a larger dead cat bounce.

Bollinger Bands (volatility and positioning)

– Mid band: $135.54
– Upper band: $145.29
– Lower band: $125.79
– Close: $138.09 (slightly above mid)

Price has drifted back toward the center of the bands after trading lower.

What it implies: The sharp part of the selloff is likely over, at least for now. SOL is back in fair value territory for this volatility regime. There is room in both directions: a push toward $145–150 would not be technically stretched, but a slide back toward $126 is equally possible if sellers reclaim control. The bands do not pick direction here; they just say the market has reset.

ATR (volatility)

– ATR 14 (D1): $7.94

Daily ATR around $8 on a $138 asset is moderate volatility, not panic.

What it implies: Position sizing cannot be lazy, but we are not in liquidation cascade conditions. Swing moves of $15–20 over a few days are entirely reasonable, so both bullish and bearish levels should be planned with that kind of noise in mind.

Daily pivot levels

– Pivot point (PP): $138.21
– R1: $140.10
– S1: $136.21

Price is trading almost exactly at the daily pivot.

What it implies: The market is currently balanced intraday around this level, which fits with the idea of consolidation. A sustained break above $140 opens the door to probing the upper Bollinger area; losing $136 brings back pressure toward the low $130s.

4H / 1H context: short-term bulls fighting a higher-timeframe drag

The hourly regime is bullish, in direct tension with the bearish daily backdrop.

1H trend and EMAs

– Price: $138.09
– EMA 20: $137.98
– EMA 50: $136.84
– EMA 200: $136.01
– Regime: bullish

On the 1H chart, price is trading above all the key EMAs, with the 20 > 50 > 200 stacking properly upward.

What it implies: Short-term players have the upper hand. Dips into the $136–138 zone are being bought for now. This is exactly what a counter-trend bounce looks like: intraday strength pushing into higher-timeframe resistance.

1H RSI

– RSI 14 (H1): 51.97

RSI is slightly above neutral.

What it implies: Intraday momentum favors the upside, but without any kind of blow-off. Bulls are in control, but they are not euphoric.

1H MACD

– MACD line: 0.41
– Signal: 0.70
– Histogram: -0.28

The MACD line is above zero but has slipped under the signal with a slightly negative histogram.

What it implies: The short-term up-swing is losing a bit of steam. This is more of a pause than a reversal signal, but it means bulls need fresh buying to keep pushing higher from here.

1H Bollinger Bands and ATR

– Mid band: $138.72
– Upper band: $141.58
– Lower band: $135.87
– ATR 14 (H1): $1.24

Price is just under the mid band with relatively tight hourly bands.

What it implies: Intraday volatility is contained. The market is grinding rather than trending violently. Breakouts outside $136–142 on the hourly could mark the next short-term impulse leg.

1H pivot levels

– Pivot point (PP): $137.90
– R1: $138.32
– S1: $137.66

Price is hugging the hourly pivot/R1 zone.

What it implies: There is a tug-of-war right at resistance. A clean hold above $138.3 on closing 1H candles would confirm intraday strength; repeated failures there would favor a drift back toward $137.5–136.5.

15m execution context: neutral, short-term noise

The 15-minute regime is neutral, which fits with the idea of digestion after a short rally.

15m EMAs

– Price: $138.05
– EMA 20: $137.73
– EMA 50: $138.06
– EMA 200: $136.70

Price sits right between the 20 and 50 EMAs, with the 200-EMA below.

What it implies: Very short-term, the market is undecided. This is a typical equilibrium after an intraday move: neither side is pressing hard. It is a trader’s timeframe, not an investor’s.

15m RSI

– RSI 14 (M15): 52.12

RSI is just above 50.

What it implies: Micro-momentum is slightly positive, but nothing extreme. Scalpers are leaning long, but the signal is weak.

15m MACD

– MACD line: -0.28
– Signal: -0.36
– Histogram: +0.08

MACD is marginally below zero, but the line has nudged above the signal, turning the histogram positive.

What it implies: After a minor pullback, very short-term momentum is trying to turn back up. Again, this supports the idea of a grind higher as long as higher timeframes do not roll over.

15m Bollinger Bands and ATR

– Mid band: $137.72
– Upper band: $139.09
– Lower band: $136.34
– ATR 14 (M15): $0.73

The bands are relatively narrow; price is tracking near the mid band.

What it implies: Volatility is compressed intraday. If you start to see 15m closes outside $139 or below $136.5 with ATR expanding, that is usually where short-term breakouts catch traders offside.

Market and DeFi backdrop for crypto Solana

Macro-wise, crypto is in a cautious risk-on mode: total market cap is pushing above $3.2T while sentiment is still in Fear (26). BTC dominance above 56% tells you most flows are still conservative, but Solana already commands ~2.39% of total market cap, which keeps it in the major alt category.

On the DeFi side, Solana’s DEX ecosystem (Raydium, Orca, Meteora, SolFi, etc.) shows mixed fee trends: some protocols have strong 1-day rebounds in fees, others are still off over 30 days. That is consistent with rotation within the Solana ecosystem rather than a broad rush in or out. It does not provide a direct, immediate trading signal, but it reinforces the idea the market is in a normalization phase after a hotter period of activity.

News flow is constructive but not euphoric: Robinhood launching staking for Solana and Ethereum in 2024 is another step in mainstreaming SOL yield, which supports the long-term story more than the next 24-hour candle.

Bullish scenario for Solana crypto (counter-trend rally building a base)

In the bullish case, the current consolidation above the daily 20-EMA becomes a higher low in a broader uptrend.

What bulls need to do:

1. Hold the $135–136 support zone. That area lines up with daily pivot S1 and the lower side of the current balance. As long as daily closes stay above roughly $135, the short-term base is intact.
2. Push toward $145–150. That is the upper Bollinger band (~$145) and the underside of the broken structure toward the 50-day EMA (~$152.5). An impulsive move into that zone with rising volume and RSI reclaiming above 55–60 on the daily would signal a real squeeze, not just chop.
3. Flip the 50-day EMA into support. This is the big structural test. If SOL can reclaim and hold above $150–155 for several daily closes, the market will start treating the recent down-move as a correction inside a larger bull market, not the start of a deeper bear leg.

How the indicators would look if bulls are winning: daily MACD would grind back toward zero and cross, RSI would climb above 55, and price would hug or ride the upper daily Bollinger band instead of mean-reverting back to the midline. Hourly EMAs would stay positively stacked with pullbacks bought near the 20/50-EMA on 1H.

Clear bullish invalidation: a decisive daily close below $135, especially if accompanied by daily RSI breaking under 40 and MACD histogram turning sharply negative again. That would tell you this was not a base; it was just a pause before another leg down.

Bearish scenario for Solana crypto (rally into supply, then another leg lower)

The bearish case is that what the market is seeing now is just a counter-trend bounce inside a new medium-term downtrend.

What bears are looking for:

1. Failure near $140–145. This zone is immediate intraday resistance (hourly R levels and mid-upper band area) and a logical pocket for sellers to re-engage. Repeated rejections here with 1H MACD rolling further negative would be the first warning sign.
2. Break of $135–136 on strong momentum. A push through daily S1 with an expansion in ATR and a drop in hourly and daily RSI back toward the low 40s opens the path toward the lower daily band (~$126).
3. Continuation toward $125 and below. If $125 (lower Bollinger band) gives way on a daily close, the chart moves back into trend lower mode, and the market will start hunting for a true oversold washout. That is where fear could finally spike.

How the indicators would look if bears are winning: daily MACD would roll over further negative from already sub-zero territory, the histogram would flip red again, and RSI would drift into the 35–40 zone or lower. Price would migrate from the mid band down to riding the lower band, with EMAs clearly sloping down and acting as dynamic resistance.

Clear bearish invalidation: a sustained reclaim and hold above $150–155 (back above the 50-day EMA) with daily RSI pushing firmly above 60. That would signal that sellers failed to defend the key moving average cluster, forcing a re-rating of the medium-term trend back toward bullish.

How to think about positioning around Solana crypto here

Solana is sitting in the gray area where both bull and bear narratives are still viable. Daily structure is damaged but not broken beyond repair; intraday flow is constructive but not explosive.

For directional traders, the key is timeframe consistency. If you are trading the daily trend, you have to respect that SOL is below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs: that usually means smaller size on longs and more patience waiting for confirmation. If you are trading the intraday bounce, you lean on the bullish 1H structure but you do not marry the position, because you are trading against the higher-timeframe bias.

Volatility is moderate, not extreme, which can be dangerous in its own way. It is easy to over-leverage when the tape feels calm and then get surprised by a $15–20 move. The key inflection zones are roughly $135 on the downside and $145–150 on the upside; expect liquidity hunts and fakeouts around those levels.

Uncertainty remains elevated.

Sentiment is fearful while market cap rises, hourly and daily signals conflict, and Solana crypto own DeFi activity is mixed. That is usually a phase where discipline and scenario planning matter more than conviction. The technicians will be watching whether the Solana crypto chart can convert this bounce into a real base, or whether this is just another lower high before the next leg down.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based solely on the technical and market data provided. It is not investment, financial, or trading advice, and it does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, or needs. Cryptoassets are volatile and carry a high level of risk, including the possible loss of all invested capital. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making any trading decisions.