Solana Price Outlook: Long-Term Bull Flags Clash With Short-Term Risk

TLDR

• Solana price trades within a multi-year ascending triangle, signaling prolonged compression before expansion.
• Monthly bull flag structure supports long-term upside targets if resistance breaks decisively.
• Short-term charts show selling pressure, with downside risk toward the $120–$133 support zone.
• Analysts view near-term weakness as tactical while long-term Solana price structure remains constructive.

Solana (SOL) price is trading at a technical crossroads as longer-term bullish structures contrast with near-term downside risk. Analysts tracking multiple timeframes identify compression patterns, flag formations, and key support tests that could define the next major move. Price projections range from near-term retracements toward $120–$133 to multi-cycle targets far above prior highs.

Solana Price in Multi-Year Compression

According to analyst Moonbag, the weekly SOL against USD chart from 2024 to 2027 shows a large ascending triangle. Price surged from early 2024 lows to a mid-2025 peak near $260, then began compressing. Lower highs meet rising support, creating a tightening structure as volatility declines.

SOURCE: X

Repeated tests of the upper boundary during 2025 failed to secure weekly closes above resistance. However, buyers continue to defend the rising base, reinforcing the compression. With volume drying near the apex, the setup reflects conditions that historically precede directional expansion in large-cap altcoins.

The analyst noted that a confirmed upside resolution could deliver a measured move toward the $400–$500 zone. Downside risk remains if support fails, but broader market strength is viewed as a tailwind. From this perspective, the Solana price structure resembles an extended accumulation phase rather than a distribution.

Analyst Pointed Out Monthly Bull Flag on Solana Price

Meanwhile, analyst Bitcoinsensus highlighted a textbook bull flag on the monthly chart. The flag follows a sharp rally from under $20 in 2023 to above $200 in 2025, forming the pole. Since then, Solana price has consolidated in a parallel channel with modest downward drift.

SOURCE: X

As of January 2026, the structure is tightening near resistance around $190, with a recent green monthly close. Lower volume during consolidation aligns with classical flag behavior. A decisive close above resistance would validate the breakout and shift focus to higher extensions.

Using the pole projection, the analyst outlined an ambitious long-term SOL price target near $1,500. The bias is supported by continued ecosystem development, including scaling, DeFi adoption, and rising network activity. In this framework, maintaining the lower channel near $100 preserves the asymmetric upside for the Solana price over the coming cycle.

Solana Price Faces Near-Term Pressure Below Key Levels

More cautiously, analyst CryptoTony examined short-term conditions on an intraday chart. After peaking near $146, Solana price has consolidated lower, trading around the mid-$130s. A curved resistance arc and repeated rejections near $140 suggest sellers remain active in the near term.

SOURCE: X

Moreover, volume has expanded on declines, indicating distribution rather than accumulation. A failed double-bottom near $132 underscores weak follow-through from buyers. CryptoTony noted $133 as a minimum downside target, with further risk toward $125 or $120 if support gives way.

However, the analyst frames this as tactical rather than structural. A controlled flush into support could present a measured re-entry if momentum stabilizes. Correlation with broader market moves remains high, meaning short-term weakness in major assets could pressure the Solana price before any trend resumption.

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