U.Today Crypto Market Review: Fake Bitcoin (BTC) Breakthrough; Shiba Inu (SHIB): Third Time’s a Charm; XRP: 3 Price Waves

At first glance, Bitcoin’s most recent surge appears impressive, but the structure underlying it strongly points to a fakeout rather than a genuine attempt at recovery. The price was able to overcome short-term resistance and recover minor moving averages, but as soon as it entered the heavier technical zone created by the 100 and 200 EMA clusters, it stalled nearly instantly. On the other hand, assets like Shiba Inu and XRP have not even tried breaking through, so the important test is yet to come.

Bitcoin’s failed recovery attempt

At those points real trend reversals either chew through them or take a quick break before continuing. Bitcoin did not. Rather, BTC printed a sharp impulse that was immediately followed by a shallow continuation and hesitation. Following the move up, volume increased, but it quickly dried up. It is not sustained spot accumulation but rather traditional short-covering and late longs being baited in. In essence, the market tested consumers’ willingness to accept price increases.

Bitcoin is still in a wider corrective phase structurally. Instead of flattening or rising, the 200 EMA is rolling over as the long-term trend has weakened. That is more important than any temporary increase. Every attempt at a breakout must be viewed with suspicion as long as BTC stays below that threshold. Rather than the beginning of a new leg higher, the current price action is consistent with a relief rally inside a larger downtrend.

Momentum indicators support this. Although RSI moved into the upper-neutral range, it was unable to reach levels usually linked to significant trend reversals. Higher time frames show a mechanical bounce following an oversold condition rather than a true bullish divergence. 

This type of move is beneficial for the market but risky for anyone who might mistake it for a bottom since it resets indicators without altering the underlying market structure. Bitcoin is acting cautiously and mechanically at the moment. 

Although they are not confident enough to push the price through significant resistance, buyers are active enough to avert an instant breakdown. However, it is evident that sellers are prepared to defend higher levels. Instead of producing precise directional movements, this balance typically results in chopping false signals and frustration.

Shiba Inu’s comeback

Shiba Inu’s price movement is stealthily getting closer to a turning point. SHIB is once again moving in the direction of the 100-day exponential moving average, and this is already the third attempt in a comparatively short amount of time following months of continuous downside pressure and repeated failures at important resistance. 

This background is important. Significant levels are rarely broken by markets on their first attempt, and resistance is frequently weakened rather than strengthened by repeated tests. After a protracted decline over the previous few weeks, SHIB has stabilized. 

Instead of collapsing once more, the asset cooled off into a shallow consolidation after printing a local bottom and bouncing sharply. This behavior indicates a significant reduction in selling pressure. The price is currently compressing slightly below the 100 EMA and holding above short-term moving averages, a situation that usually precedes a directional move.

Due in large part to poor follow-through and general market hesitancy, the first two attempts at a breakout quickly failed. On the other hand, the structure appears cleaner now. Volatility is decreasing, buyers are regularly intervening earlier than previously and pullbacks are becoming shorter. 

The technical picture shifts if SHIB is able to recover the 100 EMA and hold above it even for a short while. The most recent lower-high structure would be invalidated by such a move, allowing for a rotation toward the next resistance zone. From there, momentum might pick up speed — particularly if overall market conditions hold steady. 

Price acceptance above that level is what counts in a breakout rather than initial explosive volume. This is still a high-risk area, though. A third failure at the 100 EMA would likely keep SHIB stuck in a grinding slow range and strengthen the overall bearish trend. In that case, patience would be needed, and upside would be restricted. 

Shiba Inu is not emerging just yet, but it is knocking on doors once more. The next action could determine SHIB’s course for the upcoming weeks if “third time’s a charm” holds true in this situation.

XRP’s triple formation

The best way to characterize the current structure of XRP is as a series of three local price waves developing within a larger bearish framework. Expectations for a clean recovery are already constrained because each wave has formed within a downward-sloping channel and under declining moving averages.

The market is responding, correcting and rolling over again rather than rushing upward. The price lost the 100 EMA and was unable to recover it during the first wave, which signaled the first breakdown from earlier support. That action established the tone: upside attempts lacked volume and follow-through, and sellers were in charge. The second wave was less powerful. 

Although XRP recovered, it did so at a lower high, indicating that bullish interest was waning rather than increasing. This change was reflected in momentum indicators, which displayed relief rather than accumulation. XRP is currently moving into its third local wave. After a prolonged decline, this wave is structurally trying to establish a base, but it is encountering significant overhead resistance. 

Every bounce is under pressure because the 50 and 100 EMAs stay above price and slope downward. Technically speaking, this third wave is a corrective attempt within a bearish trend rather than a new bullish impulse. When evaluating the likelihood of recovery, that context is important. A more significant response may occasionally result from a third wave, particularly if selling pressure has run its course. 

In the case of XRP, however, the previous two waves already demonstrated that buyers are defensive rather than aggressive. The market has continuously shown signs of pessimism, with each recovery being weaker than the previous one. 

As of yet there is no structural proof that this pattern has evolved. In order for a true recovery to start, XRP would have to break the descending channel and recover important moving averages in order to completely invalidate the wave structure.