Euro flat as ECB tone softens – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is consolidating within an incredibly tight range and entering Thursday’s NA session flat to the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 currencies in mixed overall trade, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

EUR/USD consolidates above key moving averages

“The outlook for relative central bank policy has softened somewhat, on the back of this week’s moderate shift in communication from the ECB, as policymakers have reverted back toward a generally neutral outlook for policy following a more hawkish lean that had evolved from the December meeting. The next ECB meeting is on February 5th, and a hold is widely anticipated.”

“The RSI has pulled back to just above the neutral threshold at 50 and the latest consolidation is taking place just above the 50 day MA (1.1669). Recent price action has highlighted important support around the 200 day MA (1.1595), above prior range support around 1.15.”

“The flat range from June remains the EUR’s most defining feature, with resistance observed around the December high, roughly corresponding to 1.18. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1650 and 1.1750.”