Bitcoin Price Forecast as US Nonfarm Payrolls Rebound and Crude Oil Surges

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price continued falling on Friday after the latest US NFP report.
• The economy created 178k jobs in March this year.
• Crude oil prices have continued rising, with WTI hitting $112.

Bitcoin price dropped for the third consecutive days as the US published strong non-farm payrolls (NFP) data and as crude oil prices continued rising amid the ongoing Iran war. BTC was trading at $66,670, much lower than the all-time high of over $126,300.

Bitcoin Price Drops After Strong US Jobs Data

BTC price remained on edge after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published strong jobs numbers, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve will maintain a highly hawkish stance.

The report revealed that the economy added over 178k jobs in March, even as the war in Iran continued. This report was much better than the 60k analysts had expected.

The jobs report was a major turnaround, considering that the economy lost over 133k in the previous month. Manufacturing jobs added 15k after losing 6k the month before.

Most notably, the country’s unemployment rate dropped slightly from 4.4% in February to 4.3% in March. The average earnings growth rose by 3.5%.

These numbers indicate that the American economy was more resilient in March, a trend that may change in the foreseeable future as the war’s impact spreads across the economy.

Federal Reserve to Maintain a Hawkish Tone

Bitcoin’s price dropped after strong jobs numbers due to their impact on the Federal Reserve.

Analysts now believe the Fed will either hike interest rates later this year or keep them unchanged this year. That’s because inflation is expected to continue growing this year.

Data shows that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmark jumped to $112, while Brent rose to $110. This was the first time in many years that WTI has flipped Brent, a sign that US crude demand remains elevated.

Soaring oil prices mean inflation in the United States will continue to rise in the near term. For one, gasoline and diesel prices have jumped to $4 and $6 a gallon.

Fertilizer prices and all transportation costs have continued rising in the past few weeks. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will have no need to cut interest rates this year.

Worse, there are signs that the Iran war will continue for longer than expected, as the three sides have escalated the situation. For example, Trump has started bombing Iranian bridges and has hinted that power plants will be next.

Iran will likely escalate by bombing bridges and power plants in Israel and the Middle East. It may also bomb oil fields in the region, boosting crude oil prices to $150 or even $200.

All of this is happening as demand for Bitcoin wanes, with the 24-hour volume falling to $31 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have added just $22 million this week after shedding $296 million. Futures open interest have dropped to $45 billion from last year’s high of over $95 billion.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the BTC price has slumped in the past few months as demand has continued waning. It has formed a series of lower lows and lower highs in this period.

Bitcoin has already plunged below the Strong, Pivot, and Reverse levels of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $75,000. It is also about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) strategy.

Bitcoin price has dropped below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $70,920. It is now in the process of forming a bearish pennant pattern.

Therefore, the most likely Bitcoin price forecast is bearish, with the next key target to watch being at $50,000, the Ultimate Support of the Murrey Math Lines tool.

On the flip side, a surge above the key resistance level at $75,000 will cancel the bearish outlook and point to more gains, potentially to $100,000.

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