Cardano Price Prediction as Key Metrics Dive Despite the Mainnet Launch

Key Insights

• Cardano price has gone sideways in the past few months.
• Key metrics in Cardano, like DeFi TVL and stablecoin metrics, have plummeted.
• The coin has formed a descending triangle pattern, pointing to more downside.

Cardano price has gone sideways since February this year, mirroring the ongoing weakness in the broader crypto market. The ADA token was stuck at $0.2440, a few points above the year-to-date low. There is a risk that the token will drop further in the foreseeable future as its key metrics deteriorate.

Cardano Price at Risk as Key Network Metrics Deteriorate

This was supposed to be Cardano’s year as Charles Hoskinson and the team worked to address its key shortcomings. Still, third-party data shows that network growth has stalled this year, reflecting the ongoing weakness in the crypto market.

For example, data shows that the network has not attracted any new developers despite onboarding Pyth Network, a tier-1 oracle network. The theory was that the oracle network would bring new developers in areas like decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset tokenization industries.

Per DeFi Llama, Cardano’s network still has 58 dApps in the decentralized finance industry, with its total value locked (TVL) falling to $131 million from last year’s high of over $700 million. A closer look shows that 45 of these DeFi protocols have less than $1 million in assets.

More data shows that Cardano continues to struggle. For example, the network has over $48 million in stablecoin volume, a small amount in an industry that has gained over $300 billion in assets in the past few months. Ethereum has over $170 billion in stablecoin assets, while Solana and Tron have billions.

Cardano’s stablecoin is a tiny one despite the recent deal to onboard USDCx, a stablecoin that is pegged on USDC. The network has struggled to add more stablecoins, including the popular ones like USDT and Ethena’s USDe.

Meanwhile, data shows that the DEX volume in Cardano has largely dried up in the past few months. The network processed over $58 million in DEX transactions in the last 30 days, far lower than other popular chains like Solana and Ethereum, which processed over $54 billion and $38 billion, respectively.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that Cardano’s network will not add more developers or users in the foreseeable future, as many of them don’t see the need to. Besides, the existing platforms in the network are not doing well.

More data shows that Cardano’s futures open interest dropped to $404 million, down sharply from last year’s high of $2 billion. Its daily trading volume and active addresses have dropped sharply in the past few months.

ADA Price Dropped Despite the Midnight Mainnet Launch

Cardano price retreated despite the ongoing Midnight mainnet launch, which happened earlier this week.

Charles Hoskinson and the team have envisioned Midnight as the biggest player in the privacy industry by leveraging zero-knowledge (zk) proofs technology.

Midnight is designed as a Cardano asset, meaning its total value locked (TVL) and DEX transactions will be reflected in Cardano’s metrics.

There are signs that the mainnet launch underwhelmed market participants, as evidenced by NIGHT’s token performance. NIGHT token dropped to $0.042, its lowest level since December 10, and close to the all-time low of $0.035.

Cardano Price Technical Analysis

The chart below shows that the ADA token price has moved sideways in the past few months. A closer look reveals that the token has formed a descending triangle pattern, a common bearish continuation signal in technical analysis.

The token has remained below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It has also moved below the Supertrend indicator, a common bearish sign in technical analysis.

Therefore, the token will likely continue falling, potentially to the important support level at $0.200, which is about 18% below the current level. A drop below that level will point to further downside, potentially to the key support level at $0.1500.

The bearish outlook will be invalidated if the Cardano token rises above the descending trendline. A move above that level will point to more gains in the near term.

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