Cubs Dive Head-First Into Pitching Market By Declining Imanaga Option

While the Cubs haven’t done a great job developing pitchers since the Kerry Wood/Mark Prior/Carlos Zambrano era, they are going all in on the young arms on their roster: Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks and minor-league dominator Jaxon Wiggins, who has made only three starts above Double-A.

That’s the quick take on a surprising decision Jed Hoyer made to reject his side of a complicated contract option for left-hander Shota Imanaga, who has put up a 3.28 earned run average over 25 starts the last two seasons. Imanaga held a player option but is reportedly declining it, choosing instead to go on the free agent market at age 32.

It’s possible the Cubs and Imanaga can work out a new deal that keeps last season’s Opening Day starter at Wrigley Field but the likelihood is that Hoyer will fish in other waters. He has both a surplus of position players to trade and a lot of money to spend.

Assuming neither Kyle Tucker or Imanaga return, the Cubs currently figure to be $73.5 million below their Opening Day payroll of $214.4 million in 2024.

You’d think that would be the floor for a team that won 92 regular-season games and eliminated the Padres in the postseason.

Imanaga wasn’t on top of his game after missing seven weeks with a hamstring strain. He went 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA in 13 regular-season starts after the All-Star break and wasn’t effective in the postseason. He worked 6 2/3 innings in a bulk relief stint against San Diego and a start against Milwaukee, compiling an 8.10 earned run average while serving up three home runs.

With Imanaga hitting the free-agent market, the Cubs have only two starters (Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd) on the roster who have made more than two starts. They can add some depth by exercising an inexpensive ($6 million) option for 35-year-old Colin Rea.

Most people (91 percent in a poll taken by MLB Trade Rumors) felt the Cubs should exercise the Imanaga option. But among the twists and turns in the document were that by exercising it Imanaga would be given another guaranteed season on a 2024 deal that was initially reported as $53 million over four seasons.

Only the first two seasons were truly guaranteed. Imanaga was paid $10 million in ’24 (including a $1 million signing bonus), when he went 15-3 and finished fifth in Cy Young voting, and $13.25 million last season. The Cubs would have been locked into salaries of $20.25 million in ‘26, $20.25 million in ’27 and $17.25 million in ’28 if they had exercised the option.

Imanaga, who turned 32 in September, had his own player option after the Cubs said no to a $15 million salary in ’26 and another player option for $15 million in ’27. He clearly believes he can do better on the open market.

One alternative for the Cubs is a pivot to 27-year-old Tatsuya Imai, who is expected to be posted by the Saitama Seibu Lions. He is not as elite of a prospect as Yoshinobu Yamamoto but the Athletic’s Jim Bowden projects he could land a seven-year, $154 million deal.

Ranger Suarez, Dylan Cease and perhaps Zac Gallen are the only other members of this free-agent class who are expected to be treated like front-end starters. That could cause Hoyer to try to deal for a potentially available starter like the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore, the Twins’ Joe Ryan, the Pirates’ Mitch Keller of the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara.

The Cubs took that course to add a middle-of-the-order bat last winter, sending a three-player package to Houston for Tucker. They have a surplus of position players between the 40-man roster and their collection of advanced prospects.

Horton, the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2022 from the University of Oklahoma, emerged as a difference-maker last season (11-4, 2.67 over 118 innings) but was sidelined by a rib fracture in late September. Health has long been the biggest question about him, with his resume including Tommy John surgery in ’21 and a season-ending lat strain in ’24.

Wicks, the Cubs’ first-rounder in 2021, has been durable but has not been able to make his solid results in the minors carry over to the National League. He was used out of the bullpen by Craig Counsell last season but a low walk rate (1.5 percent) and some intriguing metrics — most notably a 40-percent chase rate by batters — suggests he may be gaining the command necessary to stick in the rotation.

Wiggins is a true wild card. He was selected in the second round of the 2023 draft after having Tommy John surgery in his junior season and pitching to a 6.47 ERA in two seasons at the University of Arkansas. The Cubs have quickly helped him polish his tools, which include a high-90s fastball and a dive-bombing slider in the mid-80s.

Imanaga seems a lot more projectable than most of these options. But Hoyer knows the only thing that would be guaranteed is the contract, and wasn’t willing to vouch for three more seasons of a soft thrower heading into his mid-30s. The onus is on him and his front office to deliver an upgrade.