Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could grow at ~30% per year over the next 10 years—a pace that, if sustained, would put BTC at over $1.4 million by 2035.Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could grow at ~30% per year over the next 10 years—a pace that, if sustained, would put BTC at over $1.4 million by 2035.
Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Could Average 30% Annual Growth for the Next Decade
News Brief
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could grow at ~30% per year over the next 10 years—a pace that, if sustained, would put BTC at over $1.4 million by 2035.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could grow at ~30% per year over the next 10 years—a pace that, if sustained, would put BTC at over $1.4 million by 2035.
The Math (Why $1.4M Is Plausible If 30% Holds)
Compound growth is powerful:
- Starting price (approx.): $90,000
- Annual growth: 30%
- Time horizon: 10 years
90,000×(1.30)10≈1.4–1.5 million90{,}000 \times (1.30)^{10} \approx 1.4\text{–}1.5 \text{ million}90,000×(1.30)10≈1.4–1.5 million
Small differences in starting price don’t materially change the outcome.
What Would Drive 30% CAGR?
Hougan’s thesis rests on structural demand, not hype:
- Institutional adoption via ETFs, pensions, and endowments
- Sovereign and corporate treasuries allocating small percentages
- Shrinking effective supply (lost coins + long‑term holders)
- Post‑halving dynamics reducing new issuance
- Bitcoin’s role as a digital store of value competing with gold and bonds
At ~$1.4M per BTC, Bitcoin’s market cap would be roughly $28–30 trillion, comparable to—or exceeding—gold.
Why 30% Is Aggressive but Not Absurd
- Bitcoin’s 15‑year CAGR is far higher than 30%
- As assets mature, growth slows—but monetary assets scale differently
- Even partial success (20% CAGR) would still imply massive appreciation
The key assumption: Bitcoin continues transitioning from a niche asset to a core macro allocation.
Risks to the Thesis
- Regulatory or political backlash
- Technological or protocol‑level failures
- Demand plateauing earlier than expected
- Competing monetary technologies
30% CAGR is not smooth—volatility would remain extreme.
Bottom Line
Matt Hougan’s projection isn’t a prediction of straight‑line gains—it’s a framework. If Bitcoin continues absorbing capital as a global store of value, 30% annual growth is mathematically sufficient to reach $1.4M+ by 2035.
Whether that path unfolds depends less on charts—and more on adoption, trust, and time.
Market Opportunity
Bitcoin Price(BTC)
$95,347.07
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