TD Cowen Flags Prolonged Path for U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill

TD Cowen expects U.S. crypto market structure bill progress this year, yet passage likely shifts to 2027, with rules effective 2029.

TD Cowen expects U.S. crypto market structure legislation progress this year, yet passage appears likelier during 2027. However, final rules may only go into effect in 2029 as there have been longstanding political negotiations. Moreover, there are ongoing debates on conflicts of interest, particularly restrictions on senior officials having crypto interests.

Conflict Provisions Cloud Legislative Timeline

Accordingly, TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group cited conflict-of-interest provisions as the major obstacle to lawmakers. Democrats reportedly want limitations to be placed on senior officials, such as President Donald Trump and family members. However, Republicans consider immediate application unacceptable, thus adding to the complexity of compromise and prolonging negotiations.

Meanwhile, TD Cowen managing director Jaret Seiberg observed Congress lacks a wide sense of urgency under current political dynamics. Democrats might like to hold off progress if they believe they’re going to recapture the House in the 2026 midterm elections. Therefore, incentives for speedy agreement remain weak in spite of continuing bipartisan technical discussions.

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Nevertheless, Seiberg admitted staff from both of the parties have worked for months perfecting technical language. Consequently, a deal may appear before long if political conditions change. However, the uncertainty of election results continues to affect legislative calculations and expectations of timing.

Importantly, TD Cowen proposed deferring conflict-of-interest provisions for about 3 years. This tweak would deter immediate application to the Trump administration. As a result, such a compromise could open up much wider agreement while deferring contentious ethical enforcement.

Still, Seiberg underlined that time ultimately favors enactment under a delayed framework. If passed in 2027 and implemented in 2029, many political issues will be reduced. Thus, crypto companies may have to be patient as they accept election-driven regulatory uncertainty.

Market Impact and Regulatory Stakes Remain High

Additionally, Bloomberg estimated in July that Trump made some $620 million from crypto-related ventures. These include the World Liberty Financial, DeFi and stablecoin project that counts Trump and his 3 sons as co-founders. Therefore, personal financial exposure makes it a debatable issue regarding ethics provisions.

Beyond ethics, negotiations come with other unsolved issues hanging over the bill’s path. Lawmakers are still debating whether the SEC or CFTC should be in charge of crypto markets. Furthermore, decentralized finance regulation is debated with the added complexity for final legislative language.

Previously, the bill was postponed until late 2025 through early 2026 for markup by Senate committees. However, a more cautious scenario is described by TD Cowen in his latest assessment. Accordingly, over extended periods of regulatory ambiguity, firms should prepare for multiple election cycles.

In consequence, uncertainty on a long-term basis may slow infrastructure investments and product development in the United States. Some firms may shift the focus of innovation to better-regulated areas. In this way, the lack of clarity on time can put America’s place among the world’s digital asset markets at risk.

However, opposing opinions continue to be present in Congress with regard to legislative urgency. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has been speaking publicly in support of earlier progress. He expressed ambition for meaningful movement during 2026, with the assumption of a very protracted delay.

Despite the regulatory fog, crypto markets are active and strong. As of January 6, 2026, the current price of Bitcoin is $93,921.82, and it has a market capitalization of more than $1.875 trillion. Therefore, market momentum is not losing steam while policymakers are discussing long-term oversight frameworks.

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