XRP Price Down 15% in February, But These Bullish Signals Are Turning Heads

TLDR

• XRP is trading around $1.39, down 15.6% in February 2026, below its 50- and 200-day EMAs.
• Three signals that appeared before the November 2024 rally — exchange inflow spikes, shrinking USD liquidity, and tightening XRP liquidity — are showing up again.
• XRP-spot ETFs recorded $3.04M in inflows on February 24, bringing total net inflows to $1.23B since launch.
• Fed rate cut odds for June dropped to 49.6%, weighing on crypto sentiment after stronger-than-expected consumer confidence data.
• Analysts set price targets ranging from $2.00 in the medium term to $10 if 2024 breakout patterns repeat.

XRP is trading around $1.39 as of late February 2026, down 15.6% for the month. The token is sitting below both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, pointing to a bearish short-term setup.

Despite the pressure, analysts are watching three market signals that appeared right before XRP’s explosive run in late 2024.

Back in November 2024, XRP surged from $0.50 to a high of $3.40 by January 2025 following Donald Trump’s U.S. election win. That move was one of the sharpest rallies in the token’s history.

Market analyst Xaif, citing CryptoQuant data, says the same three signals are forming again in February 2026.

The first is a rise in exchange inflows on Binance. Before the 2024 rally, large XRP transfers onto the exchange spiked — including 15.12 billion XRP on October 20, 2024, and 10.345 billion XRP on November 23, 2024. Those inflows didn’t lead to a price drop. Instead, volatility increased and the price climbed. Similar spikes are appearing again now.

Liquidity Is Tightening Again

The second signal is shrinking USD liquidity in XRP’s AMM pools. Before the 2024 breakout, daily USD liquidity fell as low as $1.5 million. In February 2026, that figure sits between $1.9 million and $2.1 million — a similar compression after peaking above $6 million in September 2025.

The third signal is falling XRP liquidity. In November 2024, available XRP in AMM pools dropped to 1.5 million before the rally. Today, daily XRP liquidity averages 1.385 million — even lower than that pre-rally level.

Xaif believes these three signals, appearing together again, could set up a move toward $10, a 619% gain from current levels. He cautions traders to confirm with derivatives data and funding rates before acting.

ETF Inflows and Macro Headwinds

On the institutional side, XRP-spot ETFs brought in $3.04 million in net inflows on February 24, pushing total cumulative inflows to $1.23 billion since the product launched in November. The ETFs have seen only five days of net outflows in that time.

US consumer confidence came in at 91 in February, above the forecast of 87, which reduced expectations for a June Fed rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool showed those odds falling from 54.3% to 49.6% on February 24.

XRP closed at $1.3489 on February 24 before rallying 3.66% to $1.3983 on the morning of February 25. Key resistance sits at $1.50, $2.00, and $2.50, with support at $1.00 and $0.7773.

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