XRP’s unrealized losses climb over $50 billion amid Oil price shock

XRP remains under significant pressure as the latest oil shock and broader market unease push investors toward a more defensive stance.

The Ripple-linked digital asset has fallen 26% this year to about $1.34 and is down 54% over the past six months, according to CryptoSlate data. In the latest 24-hour session, XRP slid from about $1.37 to as low as $1.33 before recovering to nearly $1.35 as of press time.

The move was modest by crypto standards. However, the larger signal comes from on-chain and exchange data showing a market still working through a large pool of holders sitting on losses and a trading environment that has lost some of its depth.

Glassnode data show that about 36.8 billion XRP are being held at a loss at current prices. In dollar terms, those unrealized losses amount to about $50.8 billion, or roughly 60% of the circulating supply.

That leaves a wide band of investors who are still underwater and are likely to cut exposure as the price approaches their entry levels.

This dynamic helps explain why XRP has struggled to turn short-lived recoveries into a more durable advance.

When a large share of supply sits below cost basis, rallies can meet a steady stream of sellers seeking to exit closer to breakeven. In that setup, price strength has to do more than attract momentum buyers. It also has to absorb lingering supply from earlier holders.

At the same time, the macro backdrop has added to the pressure.

Rising oil prices and the broader repricing across risk assets have pushed traders to reassess exposure across digital tokens, especially older, more liquid names that often move quickly when sentiment turns.

XRP has been caught in that adjustment, though its internal positioning suggests the market was already vulnerable to renewed selling.

XRP’s cost basis near $1.44 is shaping the market

The clearest line in the market sits around $1.44, where Glassnode places XRP’s realized price. Realized price is widely used as an on-chain proxy for holders’ aggregate cost basis.

When spot trades below that level, the average holder is underwater. That condition often changes the behavior of rallies, turning them into opportunities to repair the balance sheet.

For XRP, that cost-basis gap has become central to the market’s structure.

With spot XRP trading around $1.35 and a realized price of around $1.44, the token remains below the level at which the broader holder base begins to move back toward profitability. That places the next meaningful recovery zone directly in an area where selling pressure can build.

Other on-chain indicators support the same picture. Glassnode’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, indicating that coins moving on-chain are being spent at a loss on average.

At the same time, XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is also negative, indicating that the market as a whole remains in aggregate loss territory.

Taken together, those readings point to a market that has yet to move out of its loss regime.

However, these readings do not mean XRP price cannot rally. Instead, it shows that the hurdle for a sustained rally is higher.

This means that XRP needs sufficient new demand to clear a sizable block of supply held by holders who have been waiting for better exit levels. Until that happens, the realized-price band is likely to remain a reference point for both bulls and bears.

Sell-side aggression is showing up across order flow and derivatives

The institutional picture has also become less supportive of any uptrend for XRP.

Data from SoSoValue shows spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) products recorded their third weekly outflow of the year in the week ending March 6, with about $5 million leaving the funds.

Those products still show about $70 million in net inflows for the year, though the shift in recent weeks suggests some allocators have become more selective amid rising volatility across markets.

For context, CoinShares data shows XRP-focused investment products are the worst-performing this month, with over $30 million in outflows.

The flow picture shows a marginal pullback rather than a collapse. In a market already carrying a large block of underwater supply, even small shifts in demand can have an outsized effect.

XRP can remain under pressure without a broad institutional retreat if fresh buying slows while existing holders use strength to lighten positions.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market also shows participation has cooled. Total XRP open interest has fallen to about $2.25 billion, the lowest level since January 2025.

Open interest tracks the value of outstanding futures contracts and is often used as a gauge of speculative appetite. A decline of that size suggests traders have been closing positions and reducing directional exposure rather than adding fresh leverage.

The same caution is visible in the digital asset’s order flow, where the market is dominated by aggressive sell orders.

CryptoQuant’s taker buy-sell ratio sits at around 0.912, indicating that aggressive sell orders are outweighing aggressive buy orders.

In practical terms, the side taking liquidity is dominated by sellers. That leaves buyers providing liquidity through resting limit orders rather than pressing the market higher with market orders.

With XRP trading around $1.34, that imbalance reinforces the view that the market lacks strong, aggressive demand.

Though XRP buyers are still present in the book, they are not driving the price upward with urgency.

That signal fits the broader setup. A market can stabilize for a period while passive buyers absorb incoming supply, but the price usually struggles to build momentum when the more aggressive side of the flow remains dominated by sellers.

The combination of all of the above leaves XRP with less upward momentum.

In stronger phases, rising open interest can reinforce a spot move and add urgency to the tape. In the current setup, a smaller open interest base means the price is relying more heavily on outright spot buying to push through resistance.

However, that is not happening because the market is currently dominated by sellers.

Thin exchange activity raises market’s sensitivity

Exchange data show activity has slowed in ways that could make the next move more abrupt.

CryptoQuant’s 30-day XRP volume z-score on Binance stands at about -1.16, indicating daily trading volume has fallen below its recent average. The latest reading corresponds with a daily volume of roughly 27 million XRP while the token trades near current levels.

Lower volume does not guarantee a larger move. However, it leaves the market with less cushion when orders arrive in size.

CryptoQuant data also show the net number of active wallets depositing and withdrawing XRP across 15 major exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since early 2025, with Binance still accounting for the largest share of activity.

That suggests a market with fewer participants actively repositioning and less urgency from both buyers and sellers.

When wallet activity and trading volume decline together, order books can become thinner, and prices can become more reactive.

Under those conditions, smaller flows can move the market further than they would in a deeper environment. A stable-looking chart can therefore mask a more fragile structure underneath, especially when macro headlines can jolt sentiment across assets.