The run of Ethereum’s value in Bitcoin has ended (for now)

The value trend of Ethereum over time tends to be correlated with that of Bitcoin. 

In fact, BTC price movements often influence those of ETH, with the latter’s trend tending to align with the former. 

There are, however, periods when Ethereum moves on its own, although they are not very common and tend to last only for a short time. One of these has just ended. 

The value of Ethereum in Bitcoin

On various crypto exchanges, there are direct trading pairs between BTC and ETH, where it is possible to view the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin (ETH/BTC). 

The peak of this value in the previous cycle occurred precisely in November 2021, which is when both prices in dollars reached new all-time highs. 

At the time, one ETH was worth approximately 0.085 BTC.

Until September 2022, when Ethereum transitioned from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake, this ratio remained very high, above 0.070 BTC. 

Starting from March 2023, when the price of Bitcoin in dollars marked a significant rally, while that of Ethereum much less, the price of ETH in BTC began a long decline, which only ended in April of this year. 

It should be noted that not even the mini-altseason at the end of 2024 managed to bring ETH significantly higher compared to BTC, as it stopped at around 0.040. 

The lowest point of this cycle was reached below 0.019, at levels so low that they hadn’t been seen since early 2020. 

The rebound of Ethereum’s value in Bitcoin (ETH/BTC)

However, starting from May of this year, a significant rebound occurred. 

Note that although the price of ETH has risen in a few months from 0.019 BTC to over 0.040, the final level is still only in line with that of the end of 2024, and even 44% below the level of March 2023 from which the strong and long decline began, lasting more than two years. 

This rebound occurred in four phases, all three relatively short. 

The first one, just before mid-May, brought it back above 0.025 BTC in just one week. 

The second, shortly after mid-July, brought it back above 0.032 BTC in less than a week. 

The third one already occurred at the beginning of August, lasting just under ten days in total, and brought it back above 0.039 BTC, and the fourth, the smallest of the four, took place in the last decade of August, lasting only four days, and brought it back above 0.043 BTC. 

The Correction

At that point, there was a correction. 

In fact, already on August 26th, ETH had fallen back below 0.040 BTC, and although in the following days it fluctuated up to almost 0.042 BTC, it was unable to return to the local peaks of August. 

In fact, starting from the first of September, there was a second correction, which is actually just the continuation of the first, bringing it two days ago to 0.038 BTC. 

Currently, it has risen above 0.039 BTC, but this latest small upward movement still seems quite insignificant for now. 

Therefore, the upward trend that began in May seems to have ended for now. However, this does not rule out the possibility that another one could start, theoretically, sooner or later. 

In fact, since this upward trend has occurred in four distinct phases, it is not even possible to rule out that there might still be a fifth, and perhaps even a sixth and a seventh before the end of the year. 

However, the fact that ETH has returned around those 0.040 BTC reached at the end of 2024 as a local peak suggests that the upward trend of mid-2025 might really be over, and that something more than a mere rebound would be needed to climb back above the current levels. 

The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum

As for prices in dollars, the situation is decidedly more optimistic.

In fact, not only did Ethereum reach its new all-time high last month, above $4,900 (a level never reached before), but even now it is only -8% from those highs, thanks to a decent +4.5% in the last seven days. 

Bitcoin also recorded new all-time highs in August, but BTC has been continuously updating its all-time highs since March of last year, while ETH hadn’t updated them since November 2021. 

At this moment, Bitcoin is at -7% from its all-time highs, thanks to a +2.8% in the last seven days.

Note that the altcoin season index by CMC has risen to 66, indicating that at the moment altcoins as a whole are performing slightly better than Bitcoin. However, this could also be a temporary phase, especially if a new rally on BTC were to start.