Buyers Fight to Reverse a Sustained Downtrend

• Cardano trades near $0.44 after a rebound from $0.38, but remains capped by a descending trendline since August.
• Spot flows stay negative with $181K in outflows, signaling weak accumulation and higher risk of rejection at resistance.
• Open interest drops more than 3 percent and volume declines, showing reduced conviction and limited breakout potential.

Cardano price today trades near $0.44 after a brief rebound from multi-month lows failed to break the descending trendline that has capped rallies since August. The bounce relieved pressure from sellers but did not change the broader structure, and price is now pressing into resistance where sellers have repeatedly stepped in.

Buyers Struggle Against A Heavy Downtrend

On the 4 hour chart, ADA trades below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 EMAs. These averages slope downward and sit between $0.44 and $0.48, creating a resistance wall above current price. The long trendline drawn from the August peaks sits directly above this zone, making it a major reversal level rather than a soft breakout target.

The recent bounce from $0.38 restored short-term momentum but occurred inside a downtrend channel that remains intact. Until ADA breaks above the upper boundary with convincing volume, rallies are likely to be faded by sellers who are still in control of price action.

Supertrend support sits near $0.41. A break below that level would erase the current attempt to stabilize and bring attention back to the lower end of the range.

Daily Chart Highlights A Rebound Into Resistance

The daily chart shows a broad descending structure that has dominated most of 2025. Price bounced from the lower boundary near $0.38, a level that has generated bids on multiple occasions. It now approaches the upper boundary again, but previous attempts have failed, and rejection remains likely unless buyers show clear strength.

Bollinger Bands show price recovering from the lower band and pushing toward the middle band around $0.48. That area aligns with the trendline and creates a tight cluster of resistance. Historically, ADA has struggled to move through this zone without help from volume and flows.

RSI has recovered from 33 to around 43 but remains below levels typically associated with sustained rallies. ADA usually requires momentum above 50 to turn rebounds into continuation moves.

Spot Outflows Reflect Weak Accumulation

Coinglass Data shows $181,000 in net outflows on December 5, extending a trend of mostly negative flows for several weeks. The move suggests that the bounce has not attracted meaningful accumulation and that participants are not positioning for a major reversal.

Previous rallies that lacked inflows have faded quickly, and with price now entering resistance, the absence of positive flow increases the risk of another stall.

Open Interest Declines As Traders Reduce Risk

Derivatives data shows open interest falling 3.34 percent to $765 million while volume declined 26 percent to $965 million. Options activity collapsed, with options volume down 92 percent. The shift reflects a lack of conviction rather than aggressive positioning.

Top traders maintain a long bias, but fading open interest implies that positions are being reduced rather than expanded. The current environment does not show strong directional bets or confidence in a breakout.

Outlook. Will Cardano Go Up?

Cardano needs a break above $0.48 with strong volume to shift structure and target higher areas around $0.52 and $0.57. That level includes the trendline, the Bollinger mid-band, and a cluster of moving averages, making it the zone that decides whether the rebound becomes a real trend shift.

Failure to break $0.48 keeps the move corrective. A rejection followed by a close below $0.41 would expose $0.38 again, and losing $0.38 would target $0.35. Persistent outflows and falling open interest favor this scenario if price fails at resistance.

The next move depends on how ADA reacts to the $0.46 to $0.48 zone. A breakout signals intent. A rejection confirms that the downtrend remains in control.