Paradigm’s prediction markets terminal targets

Crypto venture fund Paradigm is quietly building a new prediction markets terminal aimed at sophisticated users, according to people familiar with the effort.

Paradigm builds pro-grade trading terminal

According to a Fortune report citing anonymous sources, Paradigm began work on a dedicated prediction trading interface in late 2025. Partner Arjun Balaji is leading the initiative, which is still unannounced but already drawing attention across the derivatives community.

The new platform is described as a professional-grade trading terminal tailored to institutional-style flows. Moreover, it is explicitly designed for professional traders and market makers rather than retail speculators, mirroring how traditional firms deploy specialized tools for futures and options.

In parallel, Paradigm is evaluating the creation of an internal market making desk. That team would place buy and sell orders directly on prediction venues to support liquidity, similar to how proprietary trading firms stabilize order books in listed derivatives.

Indexes and infrastructure for prediction exposure

The firm is also working with academic and industry researchers on new prediction market indexes. These products would group multiple contracts into a single tradable basket, much like the S&P 500 aggregates 500 stocks into one benchmark instrument.

Such index products could help asset managers gain diversified exposure to event contracts. However, they also require robust methodology and clear risk metrics to satisfy institutional risk committees and compliance teams.

Beyond the terminal itself, Paradigm has already launched a public dashboard that tracks trading volume and open interest across Polymarket, Kalshi, and several other platforms. The tool spans contracts tied to sports, politics, crypto, culture, and traditional finance, giving users a cross-exchange view of liquidity.

Deep capital ties between Paradigm and Kalshi

Kalshi, now the largest US event-contract platform, has become one of Paradigm‘s most significant portfolio companies. The venture firm led Kalshi’s $185 million Series C round in June 2024 at a $2 billion valuation, cementing its role as a core backer.

That said, Paradigm doubled down in December 2025, leading Kalshi’s $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation. In March 2026, Kalshi secured another $1 billion, lifting the company’s valuation to roughly $22 billion and underscoring the pace of the kalshi valuation rise.

Paradigm founder Matt Huang sits on Kalshi‘s board of directors and has repeatedly described event-driven trading as a trillion-dollar opportunity. However, Paradigm has not publicly confirmed its new terminal project, and no launch timeline has been announced.

Rising volume and intensifying competition

Trading activity across prediction venues has surged. Over the past year, monthly volume in event-based contracts has consistently exceeded $10 billion, according to industry trackers and Paradigm’s own dashboard metrics.

Kalshi and Polymarket currently dominate the segment, especially in US politics and macroeconomic data bets. Moreover, major crypto exchanges such as Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Genesis have launched competing products, seeking to leverage their existing customer bases.

Traditional betting and market infrastructure players are also moving in. DraftKings has started experimenting with event-style products, while Nasdaq and Cboe are pursuing regulatory approval for binary options that resemble classic prediction contracts.

Regulation remains unsettled

The legal framework for prediction markets is still evolving across jurisdictions. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Chairman Michael Selig has asserted that many event-based contracts fall squarely within its derivatives oversight.

However, several US states have initiated legal challenges against platforms including Kalshi and Crypto.com. State regulators argue these services may violate local gambling statutes, resurfacing longstanding debates over whether such contracts are financial instruments or wagering products under existing law.

Internationally, regulators in some countries have gone further and banned specific platforms outright. That said, industry lawyers expect more formal prediction markets regulation to emerge as volumes rise and mainstream financial institutions seek clearer guidance.

Why Paradigm is betting on infrastructure

The push to build a dedicated prediction markets terminal suggests Paradigm expects professional demand for structured event exposure to continue growing. Additionally, a targeted professional traders terminal could help bridge the gap between crypto-native users and traditional macro funds.

Creating an in-house liquidity operation alongside the paradigm prediction terminal would align Paradigm more closely with classic derivatives brokers and exchanges. However, it would also require sophisticated risk management, capital allocation, and strict compliance with derivatives law in every jurisdiction where it operates.

In summary, Paradigm is positioning itself at the infrastructure layer of event-based trading, expanding from capital provider to active ecosystem builder. If trading volumes and institutional interest continue to accelerate, its early bet on Kalshi and its new tools could prove highly influential.