WTI Jumps 10%, Flipping Brent

WTI crude oil moved sharply higher on Thursday, rising to $111.29 per barrel, while Brent traded at $107.57 as the market adjusted to a prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The move reversed the usual relationship between the two benchmarks, with WTI trading above Brent during a period of severe supply stress.

Under normal conditions, Brent crude trades at a premium to WTI because it reflects seaborne oil flows and tends to react more directly to global supply shocks. The latest inversion suggests a shift in how the market is valuing near-term barrels. Traders are placing a higher premium on crude that is accessible and can move without passing through the Strait.

Part of the spread move is tied to contract timing. WTI’s front-month contract still reflects May delivery, while Brent has already rolled to June. That affects the headline comparison. Even so, the deeper market signal points to acute prompt tightness and a stronger bid for barrels that can be loaded and delivered without direct shipping exposure to the Gulf chokepoint.

Strait Disruption Pushes Focus Toward Available Barrels

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about 20% of global oil flows. With tanker traffic sharply reduced and shipments effectively stalled, the market has been forced to reassess which crude supplies are actually available. In that setting, WTI has gained what traders describe as a security premium.

President Donald Trump said the United States would hit Iran “extremely hard” within weeks, while offering no clear operational path to reopen the Strait. Those comments pushed oil prices higher by more than 10% as the market priced in a longer disruption window. Later reports from Iranian state news agency IRNA said Tehran was working with Oman on a protocol to monitor transit through the waterway, which helped prices pull back from session extremes.

Brent is still carrying geopolitical risk pricing, but it remains linked to waterborne trade. When shipping lanes are constrained, that benchmark can lose some of its immediacy in reflecting deliverable supply. WTI, by contrast, represents US crude that can still move through available domestic and export channels.

Other physically accessible grades were also strengthened. Murban crude rose nearly 10% in the same session, matching the broader demand for barrels outside the disruption zone. The spread between WTI and Brent captured that change in market preference.

Market Reaction Extends Beyond the Headline Price Spike

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May were up 10% at $110.22 a barrel by late morning in New York trading, while Brent crude for June rose more than 6% to $107.35. The move followed Trump’s national address, in which he said the war would not last long but also made clear that further military action remained on the table.

That combination left markets balancing two opposing forces. On one side, the supply disruption remains active, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still under pressure. On the other hand, there are early reports that regional channels are discussing ways to manage transit and limit further escalation.

European officials are also discussing the possibility of a coalition to restore flows through the Strait. That remains under consideration, but for now the oil market is responding mainly to what is already constrained rather than to what could reopen later.

Technical Structure Stays Bullish Above Key Fibonacci Levels

From a chart perspective, WTI has also broken through several important retracement levels. Price climbed back above the psychological $100 area and reclaimed the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $101.65, extending a broader continuation structure after the earlier pullback found support in the $84 to $88 region.

The move through $90.71, $94.89, $98.27, and then $101.65 suggests the prior decline was corrective rather than a trend reversal. WTI is now pressing into the next resistance zone near $106.45, with the previous high around $112.58 back in view.

Source: TradingView

Daily candlestick structure remains firm, with recent pullbacks staying shallow relative to the size of the advance. Momentum indicators remain in positive territory, although the pace has eased from the rally’s strongest phase. As long as WTI holds above $101.65, the higher-price structure remains in place. If that level gives way, the first lower areas to watch are $98.27 and $94.89.