Brent Above $109, WTI Tops $112

Brent crude surged over 7% to trade above $109 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate jumped more than 11% to cross $112, marking their highest levels in nearly four years as of the latest session. The sharp rally reflects a sudden shift in market sentiment. 

Earlier optimism around potential supply normalization faded as traders reassessed the growing risks tied to the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf. Reports initially suggested that Oman and Iran discussed a toll system for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That idea briefly calmed markets. However, the relief did not last.

As tensions escalated again, oil benchmarks reversed course and pushed higher, signaling deep concern about supply disruptions.

Trump’s Escalation Threat Fuels Market Anxiety

President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Iran by warning that the United States would escalate attacks on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran refused to accept ceasefire conditions. That statement quickly shifted market expectations. 

Tehran responded with strong rhetoric, raising fears of retaliation that could disrupt key energy routes. At the same time, reports confirmed a strike on a major bridge near Tehran, which resulted in casualties. Meanwhile, Iranian state media claimed that its forces downed a US fighter jet, though officials have not confirmed the report.

These developments injected fresh uncertainty into already fragile markets. Traders now weigh not just current supply risks but also the potential for broader regional escalation.

Strait Of Hormuz Remains The Critical Flashpoint

The Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate market focus. This narrow waterway handles a significant share of global oil shipments. Any disruption there can send shockwaves across energy markets.

Although discussions around tanker toll coordination briefly raised hopes of stability, renewed military tensions quickly overshadowed those talks. The UK has now stepped in to host discussions with multiple countries to secure shipping routes. 

Meanwhile, reports of attacks on vessels and ongoing military movements, including US naval deployments, reinforce the sense that risks remain elevated.

Supply Response Faces Limits In The Short Term

OPEC+ has started to consider increasing output to ease supply pressures. However, market participants question how quickly additional barrels can reach global markets. Even if producers act, will it matter in the near term?

Analysts note that logistical constraints and geopolitical uncertainty could delay any meaningful impact. As a result, prices continue to reflect immediate risks rather than future supply adjustments.

At the same time, dated Brent benchmarks have surged past $140 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since 2008. That move highlights how tight the physical market has become. It also raises a critical question: are markets preparing for a prolonged disruption?

Volatility Signals Uncertain Road Ahead

Oil markets now face intense volatility, driven by rapid shifts in geopolitical developments. Prices swung sharply within the same session, reflecting uncertainty rather than clarity.

Traders continue to monitor every headline, from military actions to diplomatic signals. As long as uncertainty surrounds the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional stability, oil prices will likely remain highly sensitive to new developments.