Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as protests erupt in Tel Aviv amid escalating tensions

Protests in Tel Aviv demand an end to the war with Iran, while missile strikes from Yemen and explosions in Lebanon increase tensions. The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is down to 1% YES, falling from 12% a week ago.

The April 7 sub-market is stagnant, with odds dropping due to ongoing military actions. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week, indicating bleak prospects for a quick resolution. The April 30 odds are at 17.5% YES, down from 40%, showing traders don’t expect tensions to ease soon.

Trading shows $22,948 in USDC traded daily on the April 7 market, with $12,367 needed to move the price by 5 points, indicating a market easily swayed by smaller trades. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, showing volatility as traders react to events.

Military escalations make a ceasefire by April 7 unlikely. The bearish trend across all sub-markets signals traders’ pessimism amid rising hostilities. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire would pay $1, a 100x return, but requires believing in a near-impossible diplomatic breakthrough in just four days.

Watch for CENTCOM’s next briefing and any statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar for signs of a diplomatic shift. Without de-escalation or new peace talks, the probability of a ceasefire will stay low.

Markets Impacted

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